Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Air Lease Corporation (AL)
$44.73
-0.66 (-1.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,516.38 | 1,679.70 | 2,016.90 | 2,015.44 | 2,088.39 | 2,267.95 | 2,462.95 | 2,674.72 | 2,904.70 | 3,154.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,059.71 | 1,254.10 | 1,392.47 | 1,090.19 | 1,376.84 | 1,513.21 | 1,643.31 | 1,784.61 | 1,938.05 | 2,104.69 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,923.44 | -3,776.19 | -4,839.32 | -2,678.22 | -3,232.67 | -4,287.43 | -4,656.06 | -5,056.40 | -5,491.16 | -5,963.29 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1,863.73 | -2,522.09 | -3,446.85 | -1,588.04 | -1,855.83 | -2,774.22 | -3,012.75 | -3,271.79 | -3,553.10 | -3,858.60 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 44.73 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.783 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 114.01 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.29 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.24% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.950 |
| Total Debt | 17,022.48 |
| Total Equity | 5,099.85 |
| Total Capital | 22,122.33 |
| Debt Weighting | 76.95 |
| Equity Weighting | 23.05 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,516.38 | 1,679.70 | 2,016.90 | 2,015.44 | 2,088.39 | 2,267.95 | 2,462.95 | 2,674.72 | 2,904.70 | 3,154.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,059.71 | 1,254.10 | 1,392.47 | 1,090.19 | 1,376.84 | 1,513.21 | 1,643.31 | 1,784.61 | 1,938.05 | 2,104.69 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2,923.44 | -3,776.19 | -4,839.32 | -2,678.22 | -3,232.67 | -4,287.43 | -4,656.06 | -5,056.40 | -5,491.16 | -5,963.29 |
| Free Cash Flow | -1,863.73 | -2,522.09 | -3,446.85 | -1,588.04 | -1,855.83 | -2,774.22 | -3,012.75 | -3,271.79 | -3,553.10 | -3,858.60 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -2,694.99 | -2,843.12 | -2,999.39 | -3,164.25 | -3,338.18 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -15,039.92 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 2.94 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3,935.78 |
| Terminal Value | -418,699.61 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -362,227.77 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -377,267.69 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 15,935.98 |
| Equity Value | -393,203.67 |
| Shares Outstanding | 114.01 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3,448.73 |