Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)

$61.14

-0.88 (-1.42%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 50.00 | 61.14 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	420.49	502.36	618	748.97	842.56	1,003.02	1,194.03	1,421.43	1,692.13	2,014.38
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	60.71	47.11	102.08	103.16	56.90	122.09	145.34	173.02	205.97	245.19
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-12.09	-20.17	-20.49	-15.42	-28.64	-31.42	-37.41	-44.53	-53.01	-63.11
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	48.62	26.94	81.59	87.73	28.26	90.66	107.93	128.48	152.95	182.08

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 61.14
Beta	0.959
Diluted Shares Outstanding	54.93
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.45
After-tax Cost of Debt	0.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.085
Total Debt	529.91
Total Equity	3,358.59
Total Capital	3,888.50
Debt Weighting	13.63
Equity Weighting	86.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	420.49	502.36	618	748.97	842.56	1,003.02	1,194.03	1,421.43	1,692.13	2,014.38
Operating Cash Flow	60.71	47.11	102.08	103.16	56.90	122.09	145.34	173.02	205.97	245.19
Capital Expenditure	-12.09	-20.17	-20.49	-15.42	-28.64	-31.42	-37.41	-44.53	-53.01	-63.11
Free Cash Flow	48.62	26.94	81.59	87.73	28.26	90.66	107.93	128.48	152.95	182.08
WACC
PV LFCF						84	92.65	102.19	112.72	124.32
SUM PV LFCF										515.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	7.93
Free cash flow (t + 1)	185.72
Terminal Value	3,131.92
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,138.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,654.34
Net Debt	-92.26
Equity Value	2,746.60
Shares Outstanding	54.93
Equity Value Per Share	50.00