Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO)

$3.81

-0.11 (-2.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1.60 | 3.81 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,632.261,515.371,424.88897.021,207.891,161.021,115.961,072.661,031.03991.02
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 36.511.57-23.3671.7826.8225.3624.3823.4322.5221.65
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -20.87-15.15-3.28-6.58-16.38-10.68-10.26-9.87-9.48-9.11
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 15.64-13.59-26.6465.2010.4414.6814.1113.5713.0412.53

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.81
Beta 2.523
Diluted Shares Outstanding 58.61
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 3.09
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.47%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.733
Total Debt 63.65
Total Equity 223.30
Total Capital 286.95
Debt Weighting 22.18
Equity Weighting 77.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,632.261,515.371,424.88897.021,207.891,161.021,115.961,072.661,031.03991.02
Operating Cash Flow 36.511.57-23.3671.7826.8225.3624.3823.4322.5221.65
Capital Expenditure -20.87-15.15-3.28-6.58-16.38-10.68-10.26-9.87-9.48-9.11
Free Cash Flow 15.64-13.59-26.6465.2010.4414.6814.1113.5713.0412.53
WACC
PV LFCF 12.9410.969.297.876.67
SUM PV LFCF 47.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 13.46
Free cash flow (t + 1) 12.78
Terminal Value 111.56
Present Value of Terminal Value 59.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 107.06
Net Debt 13.04
Equity Value 94.02
Shares Outstanding 58.61
Equity Value Per Share 1.60