Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)

$158.24

-1.55 (-0.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 57.42 | 158.24 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,649.972,031.202,290.261,416.192,258.592,581.442,950.453,372.203,854.244,405.19
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 305.57158.38131.88129.24174.94252.70288.83330.11377.30431.24
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -83.12-92.13-192.41-153.99-83.30-167.98-191.99-219.44-250.81-286.66
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 222.4466.25-60.53-24.7591.6484.7296.83110.68126.50144.58

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 158.24
Beta 1.318
Diluted Shares Outstanding 18.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 15.44%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.839
Total Debt 448.55
Total Equity 2,986.25
Total Capital 3,434.81
Debt Weighting 13.06
Equity Weighting 86.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 1,649.972,031.202,290.261,416.192,258.592,581.442,950.453,372.203,854.244,405.19
Operating Cash Flow 305.57158.38131.88129.24174.94252.70288.83330.11377.30431.24
Capital Expenditure -83.12-92.13-192.41-153.99-83.30-167.98-191.99-219.44-250.81-286.66
Free Cash Flow 222.4466.25-60.53-24.7591.6484.7296.83110.68126.50144.58
WACC
PV LFCF 46.3647.9349.5451.2152.93
SUM PV LFCF 409.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.57
Free cash flow (t + 1) 147.47
Terminal Value 1,720.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,041.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,451.01
Net Debt 367.34
Equity Value 1,083.67
Shares Outstanding 18.87
Equity Value Per Share 57.42