Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR)

$158.24

-1.55 (-0.97%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 57.42 | 158.24 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,649.97	2,031.20	2,290.26	1,416.19	2,258.59	2,581.44	2,950.45	3,372.20	3,854.24	4,405.19
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	305.57	158.38	131.88	129.24	174.94	252.70	288.83	330.11	377.30	431.24
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-83.12	-92.13	-192.41	-153.99	-83.30	-167.98	-191.99	-219.44	-250.81	-286.66
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	222.44	66.25	-60.53	-24.75	91.64	84.72	96.83	110.68	126.50	144.58

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 158.24
Beta	1.318
Diluted Shares Outstanding	18.87
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.60
After-tax Cost of Debt	15.44%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.839
Total Debt	448.55
Total Equity	2,986.25
Total Capital	3,434.81
Debt Weighting	13.06
Equity Weighting	86.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	1,649.97	2,031.20	2,290.26	1,416.19	2,258.59	2,581.44	2,950.45	3,372.20	3,854.24	4,405.19
Operating Cash Flow	305.57	158.38	131.88	129.24	174.94	252.70	288.83	330.11	377.30	431.24
Capital Expenditure	-83.12	-92.13	-192.41	-153.99	-83.30	-167.98	-191.99	-219.44	-250.81	-286.66
Free Cash Flow	222.44	66.25	-60.53	-24.75	91.64	84.72	96.83	110.68	126.50	144.58
WACC
PV LFCF						46.36	47.93	49.54	51.21	52.93
SUM PV LFCF										409.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.57
Free cash flow (t + 1)	147.47
Terminal Value	1,720.76
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,041.20

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,451.01
Net Debt	367.34
Equity Value	1,083.67
Shares Outstanding	18.87
Equity Value Per Share	57.42