Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Antero Resources Corporation (AR)
$21.31
-0.59 (-2.69%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,652.89 | 3,648.35 | 3,083.90 | 5,790.76 | 7,138.44 | 8,841.86 | 10,951.77 | 13,565.16 | 16,802.17 | 20,811.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,081.99 | 1,103.46 | 735.64 | 1,660.12 | 3,051.34 | 3,227.43 | 3,997.59 | 4,951.52 | 6,133.09 | 7,596.61 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -722.01 | -168.04 | -48.09 | -114.76 | -14.31 | -497.14 | -615.78 | -762.72 | -944.72 | -1,170.16 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,359.97 | 935.42 | 687.55 | 1,545.36 | 3,037.03 | 2,730.29 | 3,381.81 | 4,188.80 | 5,188.36 | 6,426.45 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.31 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.475 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 329.22 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.27 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.08% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 20.145 |
| Total Debt | 4,629.97 |
| Total Equity | 7,015.74 |
| Total Capital | 11,645.71 |
| Debt Weighting | 39.76 |
| Equity Weighting | 60.24 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,652.89 | 3,648.35 | 3,083.90 | 5,790.76 | 7,138.44 | 8,841.86 | 10,951.77 | 13,565.16 | 16,802.17 | 20,811.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,081.99 | 1,103.46 | 735.64 | 1,660.12 | 3,051.34 | 3,227.43 | 3,997.59 | 4,951.52 | 6,133.09 | 7,596.61 |
| Capital Expenditure | -722.01 | -168.04 | -48.09 | -114.76 | -14.31 | -497.14 | -615.78 | -762.72 | -944.72 | -1,170.16 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,359.97 | 935.42 | 687.55 | 1,545.36 | 3,037.03 | 2,730.29 | 3,381.81 | 4,188.80 | 5,188.36 | 6,426.45 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,314.20 | 1,441.04 | 1,580.13 | 1,732.64 | 1,899.87 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 14,654.33 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.96 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6,554.98 |
| Terminal Value | 59,808.18 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 32,519 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 47,173.33 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 4,629.97 |
| Equity Value | 42,543.37 |
| Shares Outstanding | 329.22 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 129.22 |