Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Aravive, Inc. (ARAV)
$1.8
+0.04 (+2.27%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1.37 | 4.75 | 5.68 | 7.44 | 9.14 | 16.45 | 29.60 | 53.28 | 95.90 | 172.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -29.26 | -17.08 | -12.17 | -32.18 | -65.08 | -126.70 | -228.05 | -410.48 | -738.83 | -1,329.85 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.11 | -7.31 | -8.75 | -11.45 | -14.06 | -25.30 | -45.54 | -81.96 | -147.52 | -265.53 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -31.37 | -24.39 | -20.91 | -43.62 | -79.13 | -152 | -273.59 | -492.44 | -886.36 | -1,595.39 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 1.8 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.350 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 36.37 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.00 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.783 |
| Total Debt | 4.08 |
| Total Equity | 65.47 |
| Total Capital | 69.55 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.86 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.14 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 1.37 | 4.75 | 5.68 | 7.44 | 9.14 | 16.45 | 29.60 | 53.28 | 95.90 | 172.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -29.26 | -17.08 | -12.17 | -32.18 | -65.08 | -126.70 | -228.05 | -410.48 | -738.83 | -1,329.85 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2.11 | -7.31 | -8.75 | -11.45 | -14.06 | -25.30 | -45.54 | -81.96 | -147.52 | -265.53 |
| Free Cash Flow | -31.37 | -24.39 | -20.91 | -43.62 | -79.13 | -152 | -273.59 | -492.44 | -886.36 | -1,595.39 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -102.03 | -160.80 | -253.42 | -399.38 | -629.41 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -2,015.34 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.21 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1,627.29 |
| Terminal Value | -13,327.54 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -6,858.50 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -8,873.84 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -49.61 |
| Equity Value | -8,824.23 |
| Shares Outstanding | 36.37 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -242.61 |