Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Arch Resources, Inc. (ARCH)

$109.91

+4.71 (+4.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: -0.42 | 109.91 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,294.351,467.59938.75600.48384.10245.69157.16100.5364.3041.13
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 419.7161.11105.4167.4243.1327.5917.6511.297.224.62
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -267.61-287.07-146.56-93.75-59.97-38.36-24.54-15.69-10.04-6.42
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 152.11-225.96-41.15-26.32-16.84-10.77-6.89-4.41-2.82-1.80

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 109.91
Beta 0.700
Diluted Shares Outstanding 20.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -23.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.993
Total Debt 148.30
Total Equity 2,306.46
Total Capital 2,454.77
Debt Weighting 6.04
Equity Weighting 93.96
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
2028
Projected
Revenue 2,294.351,467.59938.75600.48384.10245.69157.16100.5364.3041.13
Operating Cash Flow 419.7161.11105.4167.4243.1327.5917.6511.297.224.62
Capital Expenditure -267.61-287.07-146.56-93.75-59.97-38.36-24.54-15.69-10.04-6.42
Free Cash Flow 152.11-225.96-41.15-26.32-16.84-10.77-6.89-4.41-2.82-1.80
WACC
PV LFCF -47-28.13-16.84-10.08-6.03-3.61-2.16-1.29
SUM PV LFCF -23.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.87
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1.84
Terminal Value -37.76
Present Value of Terminal Value -27.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -50.26
Net Debt -41.44
Equity Value -8.83
Shares Outstanding 20.98
Equity Value Per Share -0.42