Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finan... (ARI)
$11.94
-0.14 (-1.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 255.20 | 299.45 | 315 | 210.58 | 278.32 | 293.31 | 309.11 | 325.76 | 343.32 | 361.81 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 154.87 | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.38 | 226.35 | 238.54 | 251.39 | 264.94 | 279.21 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.15 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.17 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 154.87 | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.25 | 226.21 | 238.39 | 251.24 | 264.77 | 279.04 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 11.94 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.275 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 148 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.00 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.07% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.807 |
Total Debt | 2,013.29 |
Total Equity | 1,767.17 |
Total Capital | 3,780.47 |
Debt Weighting | 53.26 |
Equity Weighting | 46.74 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 255.20 | 299.45 | 315 | 210.58 | 278.32 | 293.31 | 309.11 | 325.76 | 343.32 | 361.81 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 154.87 | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.38 | 226.35 | 238.54 | 251.39 | 264.94 | 279.21 |
Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | -0.13 | -0.14 | -0.15 | -0.16 | -0.16 | -0.17 |
Free Cash Flow | 154.87 | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.25 | 226.21 | 238.39 | 251.24 | 264.77 | 279.04 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 208.66 | 202.84 | 197.19 | 191.69 | 186.34 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 986.72 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.41 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 284.62 |
Terminal Value | 4,440.23 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,965.24 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 3,951.96 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,670.19 |
Equity Value | 2,281.77 |
Shares Outstanding | 148 |
Equity Value Per Share | 15.42 |