Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finan... (ARI)

$11.94

-0.14 (-1.16%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 15.42 | 11.94 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 255.20299.45315210.58278.32293.31309.11325.76343.32361.81
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 154.87265.96273.43164.05199.38226.35238.54251.39264.94279.21
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -----0.13-0.14-0.15-0.16-0.16-0.17
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 154.87265.96273.43164.05199.25226.21238.39251.24264.77279.04

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.94
Beta 1.275
Diluted Shares Outstanding 148
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.07%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.807
Total Debt 2,013.29
Total Equity 1,767.17
Total Capital 3,780.47
Debt Weighting 53.26
Equity Weighting 46.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 255.20299.45315210.58278.32293.31309.11325.76343.32361.81
Operating Cash Flow 154.87265.96273.43164.05199.38226.35238.54251.39264.94279.21
Capital Expenditure -----0.13-0.14-0.15-0.16-0.16-0.17
Free Cash Flow 154.87265.96273.43164.05199.25226.21238.39251.24264.77279.04
WACC
PV LFCF 208.66202.84197.19191.69186.34
SUM PV LFCF 986.72

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.41
Free cash flow (t + 1) 284.62
Terminal Value 4,440.23
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,965.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 3,951.96
Net Debt 1,670.19
Equity Value 2,281.77
Shares Outstanding 148
Equity Value Per Share 15.42