Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finan... (ARI)
$10.73
+0.38 (+3.67%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 299.45 | 315 | 210.58 | 278.31 | 303.64 | 313.74 | 324.18 | 334.97 | 346.12 | 357.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.38 | 267.70 | 259.36 | 267.99 | 276.91 | 286.12 | 295.64 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | -0.13 | -33.03 | -17.14 | -17.71 | -18.30 | -18.91 | -19.54 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.25 | 234.67 | 242.22 | 250.28 | 258.61 | 267.21 | 276.10 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 10.73 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.649 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 165.50 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 0.00 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 37.35% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.475 |
Total Debt | 724.21 |
Total Equity | 1,775.87 |
Total Capital | 2,500.07 |
Debt Weighting | 28.97 |
Equity Weighting | 71.03 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 299.45 | 315 | 210.58 | 278.31 | 303.64 | 313.74 | 324.18 | 334.97 | 346.12 | 357.63 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.38 | 267.70 | 259.36 | 267.99 | 276.91 | 286.12 | 295.64 |
Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | -0.13 | -33.03 | -17.14 | -17.71 | -18.30 | -18.91 | -19.54 |
Free Cash Flow | 265.96 | 273.43 | 164.05 | 199.25 | 234.67 | 242.22 | 250.28 | 258.61 | 267.21 | 276.10 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 203.60 | 176.83 | 153.58 | 133.38 | 115.85 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 783.23 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 18.97 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 281.62 |
Terminal Value | 1,659.54 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 696.30 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,479.53 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 502.18 |
Equity Value | 977.36 |
Shares Outstanding | 165.50 |
Equity Value Per Share | 5.91 |