Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
American Realty Investors, Inc. (ARL)
$18.11
+0.27 (+1.51%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 120.96 | 47.97 | 59.03 | 42.04 | 37.54 | 30.34 | 24.52 | 19.81 | 16.01 | 12.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -172.33 | -40.64 | 3.50 | -11.52 | -0.05 | -15.10 | -12.20 | -9.86 | -7.97 | -6.44 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | - | - | - | - | - | -15.10 | -12.20 | -9.86 | -7.97 | -6.44 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 18.11 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.665 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 16.15 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 17.11 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 11.55% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.834 |
| Total Debt | 188 |
| Total Equity | 292.51 |
| Total Capital | 480.52 |
| Debt Weighting | 39.13 |
| Equity Weighting | 60.87 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 120.96 | 47.97 | 59.03 | 42.04 | 37.54 | 30.34 | 24.52 | 19.81 | 16.01 | 12.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -172.33 | -40.64 | 3.50 | -11.52 | -0.05 | -15.10 | -12.20 | -9.86 | -7.97 | -6.44 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Free Cash Flow | - | - | - | - | - | -15.10 | -12.20 | -9.86 | -7.97 | -6.44 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -13.89 | -10.33 | -7.68 | -5.71 | -4.25 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -41.86 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.68 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -6.57 |
| Terminal Value | -98.30 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -64.83 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -106.69 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 74.56 |
| Equity Value | -181.25 |
| Shares Outstanding | 16.15 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -11.22 |