Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB)
$181.51
+0.31 (+0.17%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,284.53 | 2,324.63 | 2,301.26 | 2,294.85 | 2,593.45 | 2,680.86 | 2,771.23 | 2,864.64 | 2,961.19 | 3,061.01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,301.11 | 1,321.80 | 1,219.61 | 1,203.17 | 1,421.93 | 1,469.48 | 1,519.01 | 1,570.21 | 1,623.14 | 1,677.85 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -86.93 | -140.89 | -137.04 | -153.24 | -174.71 | -156.75 | -162.03 | -167.49 | -173.14 | -178.97 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,214.18 | 1,180.91 | 1,082.58 | 1,049.93 | 1,247.23 | 1,312.73 | 1,356.98 | 1,402.72 | 1,450 | 1,498.88 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 181.51 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.929 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 140.44 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 1.24 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.68% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.078 |
| Total Debt | 8,478.72 |
| Total Equity | 25,490.39 |
| Total Capital | 33,969.11 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.96 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.04 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,284.53 | 2,324.63 | 2,301.26 | 2,294.85 | 2,593.45 | 2,680.86 | 2,771.23 | 2,864.64 | 2,961.19 | 3,061.01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,301.11 | 1,321.80 | 1,219.61 | 1,203.17 | 1,421.93 | 1,469.48 | 1,519.01 | 1,570.21 | 1,623.14 | 1,677.85 |
| Capital Expenditure | -86.93 | -140.89 | -137.04 | -153.24 | -174.71 | -156.75 | -162.03 | -167.49 | -173.14 | -178.97 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,214.18 | 1,180.91 | 1,082.58 | 1,049.93 | 1,247.23 | 1,312.73 | 1,356.98 | 1,402.72 | 1,450 | 1,498.88 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,229.96 | 1,191.24 | 1,153.75 | 1,117.44 | 1,082.26 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 5,774.65 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,528.85 |
| Terminal Value | 32,322.51 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 23,338.47 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 29,113.13 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 7,865.53 |
| Equity Value | 21,247.60 |
| Shares Outstanding | 140.44 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 151.30 |