Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)

$111.2

-7.18 (-6.07%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1,062.91 | 111.2 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 40,042.5660,295.0481,553.76114,766.24136,489.92186,134.20253,835.16346,160.40472,066.28643,766.80
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 20,027.3624,15628,897.1237,085.7622,841.4464,983.3488,619.16120,851.84164,808.21224,752.46
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,773.76-7,942.88-7,261.76-6,909.60-13,655.79-18,622.69-25,396.16-34,633.28-47,230.14-64,408.74
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 15,253.6016,213.1221,635.3630,176.169,185.6546,360.6563,223.0186,218.56117,578.08160,343.72

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 111.2
Beta 0.537
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,747.75
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -4.53
After-tax Cost of Debt 14.58%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.088
Total Debt 22,615.04
Total Equity 305,549.80
Total Capital 328,164.84
Debt Weighting 6.89
Equity Weighting 93.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 40,042.5660,295.0481,553.76114,766.24136,489.92186,134.20253,835.16346,160.40472,066.28643,766.80
Operating Cash Flow 20,027.3624,15628,897.1237,085.7622,841.4464,983.3488,619.16120,851.84164,808.21224,752.46
Capital Expenditure -4,773.76-7,942.88-7,261.76-6,909.60-13,655.79-18,622.69-25,396.16-34,633.28-47,230.14-64,408.74
Free Cash Flow 15,253.6016,213.1221,635.3630,176.169,185.6546,360.6563,223.0186,218.56117,578.08160,343.72
WACC
PV LFCF 43,461.7655,563.6271,035.2490,814.91116,102.21
SUM PV LFCF 376,977.74

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.67
Free cash flow (t + 1) 163,550.59
Terminal Value 3,502,154
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,535,851.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,912,828.93
Net Debt -7,768.64
Equity Value 2,920,597.57
Shares Outstanding 2,747.75
Equity Value Per Share 1,062.91