Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
BHP Group Limited (BHP)
$58.13
-0.02 (-0.03%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 43,638 | 44,288 | 42,931 | 60,817 | 65,098 | 72,767.66 | 81,340.93 | 90,924.29 | 101,636.72 | 113,611.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 18,461 | 17,871 | 15,706 | 27,234 | 32,174 | 31,063.81 | 34,723.65 | 38,814.69 | 43,387.73 | 48,499.55 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4,979 | -6,250 | -6,900 | -6,606 | -5,855 | -8,943.22 | -9,996.88 | -11,174.68 | -12,491.25 | -13,962.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 13,482 | 11,621 | 8,806 | 20,628 | 26,319 | 22,120.59 | 24,726.77 | 27,640.01 | 30,896.48 | 34,536.61 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 58.13 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.833 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,535.50 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 6.75 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.83% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.423 |
| Total Debt | 16,428 |
| Total Equity | 147,388.61 |
| Total Capital | 163,816.61 |
| Debt Weighting | 10.03 |
| Equity Weighting | 89.97 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 43,638 | 44,288 | 42,931 | 60,817 | 65,098 | 72,767.66 | 81,340.93 | 90,924.29 | 101,636.72 | 113,611.27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 18,461 | 17,871 | 15,706 | 27,234 | 32,174 | 31,063.81 | 34,723.65 | 38,814.69 | 43,387.73 | 48,499.55 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4,979 | -6,250 | -6,900 | -6,606 | -5,855 | -8,943.22 | -9,996.88 | -11,174.68 | -12,491.25 | -13,962.94 |
| Free Cash Flow | 13,482 | 11,621 | 8,806 | 20,628 | 26,319 | 22,120.59 | 24,726.77 | 27,640.01 | 30,896.48 | 34,536.61 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 20,681.18 | 21,613.48 | 22,587.80 | 23,606.05 | 24,670.20 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 113,158.72 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.96 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 35,227.34 |
| Terminal Value | 710,228.67 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 507,330.80 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 620,489.52 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -808 |
| Equity Value | 621,297.52 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2,535.50 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 245.04 |