Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
BHP Group Limited (BHP)
$62.46
-0.23 (-0.37%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 44,288 | 42,931 | 56,921 | 65,411 | 53,817 | 57,411.13 | 61,245.29 | 65,335.51 | 69,698.89 | 74,353.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 17,871 | 15,706 | 27,234 | 32,174 | 18,701 | 23,965.47 | 25,565.99 | 27,273.40 | 29,094.83 | 31,037.91 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -6,250 | -6,900 | -5,612 | -6,111 | -6,733 | -7,107.17 | -7,581.82 | -8,088.16 | -8,628.32 | -9,204.56 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11,621 | 8,806 | 21,622 | 26,063 | 11,968 | 16,858.31 | 17,984.17 | 19,185.23 | 20,466.51 | 21,833.35 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 62.46 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.788 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5,073 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 39.62 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.57% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.974 |
| Total Debt | 22,345 |
| Total Equity | 316,859.58 |
| Total Capital | 339,204.58 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.59 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.41 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Actual | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected | 2028 Projected |
| Revenue | 44,288 | 42,931 | 56,921 | 65,411 | 53,817 | 57,411.13 | 61,245.29 | 65,335.51 | 69,698.89 | 74,353.68 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 17,871 | 15,706 | 27,234 | 32,174 | 18,701 | 23,965.47 | 25,565.99 | 27,273.40 | 29,094.83 | 31,037.91 |
| Capital Expenditure | -6,250 | -6,900 | -5,612 | -6,111 | -6,733 | -7,107.17 | -7,581.82 | -8,088.16 | -8,628.32 | -9,204.56 |
| Free Cash Flow | 11,621 | 8,806 | 21,622 | 26,063 | 11,968 | 16,858.31 | 17,984.17 | 19,185.23 | 20,466.51 | 21,833.35 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 15,664.66 | 15,527.61 | 15,391.75 | 15,257.09 | 15,123.61 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 76,964.72 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.62 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 22,270.01 |
| Terminal Value | 396,263.57 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 274,485.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 351,450.09 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 9,917 |
| Equity Value | 341,533.09 |
| Shares Outstanding | 5,073 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 67.32 |