Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

BHP Group Limited (BHP)

$50.04

-0.38 (-0.75%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 254.12 | 50.04 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 38,28543,63844,28842,93160,81769,037.8978,370.0388,963.63100,989.22114,640.35
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 16,80418,46117,87115,70627,23428,707.7632,588.3036,993.4041,993.9547,670.45
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,252-4,979-6,250-6,900-6,606-8,776.45-9,962.79-11,309.51-12,838.26-14,573.66
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 12,55213,48211,6218,80620,62819,931.3122,625.5125,683.8929,155.6933,096.79

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 50.04
Beta 0.734
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,534.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 54.05
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.05%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.267
Total Debt 20,983
Total Equity 126,827.84
Total Capital 147,810.84
Debt Weighting 14.20
Equity Weighting 85.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 38,28543,63844,28842,93160,81769,037.8978,370.0388,963.63100,989.22114,640.35
Operating Cash Flow 16,80418,46117,87115,70627,23428,707.7632,588.3036,993.4041,993.9547,670.45
Capital Expenditure -4,252-4,979-6,250-6,900-6,606-8,776.45-9,962.79-11,309.51-12,838.26-14,573.66
Free Cash Flow 12,55213,48211,6218,80620,62819,931.3122,625.5125,683.8929,155.6933,096.79
WACC
PV LFCF 18,709.5819,936.7621,244.4322,637.8824,122.72
SUM PV LFCF 106,651.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.53
Free cash flow (t + 1) 33,758.73
Terminal Value 745,225.74
Present Value of Terminal Value 543,160.54

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 649,811.90
Net Debt 5,737
Equity Value 644,074.90
Shares Outstanding 2,534.53
Equity Value Per Share 254.12