Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR.TO)

$8

-0.12 (-1.48%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 12.29 | 8 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	621.42	633.69	542.19	953.13	1,358.99	1,718.81	2,173.90	2,749.49	3,477.47	4,398.21
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	324.43	327.07	188.18	515.37	925.27	896.14	1,133.41	1,433.50	1,813.05	2,293.10
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-303.29	-296.35	-289.67	-230.48	-364.62	-687.55	-869.60	-1,099.84	-1,391.05	-1,759.36
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	21.15	30.72	-101.49	284.89	560.65	208.59	263.81	333.66	422.01	533.74

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 8
Beta	2.258
Diluted Shares Outstanding	274.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	23.39
After-tax Cost of Debt	7.23%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.372
Total Debt	145.57
Total Equity	2,194.87
Total Capital	2,340.45
Debt Weighting	6.22
Equity Weighting	93.78
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	621.42	633.69	542.19	953.13	1,358.99	1,718.81	2,173.90	2,749.49	3,477.47	4,398.21
Operating Cash Flow	324.43	327.07	188.18	515.37	925.27	896.14	1,133.41	1,433.50	1,813.05	2,293.10
Capital Expenditure	-303.29	-296.35	-289.67	-230.48	-364.62	-687.55	-869.60	-1,099.84	-1,391.05	-1,759.36
Free Cash Flow	21.15	30.72	-101.49	284.89	560.65	208.59	263.81	333.66	422.01	533.74
WACC
PV LFCF						183.08	203.24	225.63	250.48	278.06
SUM PV LFCF										1,140.49

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	13.93
Free cash flow (t + 1)	544.42
Terminal Value	4,563.43
Present Value of Terminal Value	2,377.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	3,517.89
Net Debt	145.50
Equity Value	3,372.39
Shares Outstanding	274.36
Equity Value Per Share	12.29