Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

CAE Inc. (CAE.TO)

$27.92

-0.66 (-2.31%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -0.93 | 27.92 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,830	3,304.10	3,623.20	2,981.90	3,371.30	3,554.78	3,748.24	3,952.23	4,167.32	4,394.12
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	403.30	530.40	545.10	366.60	418.20	498	525.11	553.69	583.82	615.59
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-188.70	-338.40	-384	-163.60	-362.80	-311.08	-328.02	-345.87	-364.69	-384.54
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	214.60	192	161.10	203	55.40	186.92	197.09	207.82	219.13	231.06

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 27.92
Beta	2.007
Diluted Shares Outstanding	312.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	7.75
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.189
Total Debt	3,046.20
Total Equity	8,736.21
Total Capital	11,782.41
Debt Weighting	25.85
Equity Weighting	74.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,830	3,304.10	3,623.20	2,981.90	3,371.30	3,554.78	3,748.24	3,952.23	4,167.32	4,394.12
Operating Cash Flow	403.30	530.40	545.10	366.60	418.20	498	525.11	553.69	583.82	615.59
Capital Expenditure	-188.70	-338.40	-384	-163.60	-362.80	-311.08	-328.02	-345.87	-364.69	-384.54
Free Cash Flow	214.60	192	161.10	203	55.40	186.92	197.09	207.82	219.13	231.06
WACC
PV LFCF						168.91	160.95	153.36	146.13	139.24
SUM PV LFCF										768.59

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	10.66
Free cash flow (t + 1)	235.68
Terminal Value	2,721.43
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,640

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,408.59
Net Debt	2,700.10
Equity Value	-291.51
Shares Outstanding	312.90
Equity Value Per Share	-0.93