Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
CareDx, Inc (CDNA)
$7.93
-0.46 (-5.48%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 76.57 | 127.07 | 192.19 | 296.40 | 321.79 | 466.59 | 676.55 | 980.98 | 1,422.40 | 2,062.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -4.01 | -2.77 | 33.43 | -19.29 | -25.24 | -4.08 | -5.91 | -8.58 | -12.43 | -18.03 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.24 | -3.35 | -10.36 | -20.26 | -24.33 | -29.74 | -43.13 | -62.54 | -90.68 | -131.48 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -11.24 | -6.12 | 23.07 | -39.55 | -49.57 | -33.82 | -49.04 | -71.11 | -103.11 | -149.51 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.93 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.032 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 53.32 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.50 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 9.65% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 8.612 |
| Total Debt | 39 |
| Total Equity | 422.84 |
| Total Capital | 461.84 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.44 |
| Equity Weighting | 91.56 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 76.57 | 127.07 | 192.19 | 296.40 | 321.79 | 466.59 | 676.55 | 980.98 | 1,422.40 | 2,062.45 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -4.01 | -2.77 | 33.43 | -19.29 | -25.24 | -4.08 | -5.91 | -8.58 | -12.43 | -18.03 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.24 | -3.35 | -10.36 | -20.26 | -24.33 | -29.74 | -43.13 | -62.54 | -90.68 | -131.48 |
| Free Cash Flow | -11.24 | -6.12 | 23.07 | -39.55 | -49.57 | -33.82 | -49.04 | -71.11 | -103.11 | -149.51 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -28.63 | -38.19 | -50.94 | -67.94 | -90.63 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -300.37 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.70 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -152.50 |
| Terminal Value | -2,276.10 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,499.83 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,800.20 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -50.92 |
| Equity Value | -1,749.28 |
| Shares Outstanding | 53.32 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -32.81 |