Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF.TO)

$1.69

-0.01 (-0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 4.18 | 1.69 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 469.73669.92157.40128.71250.53277.17306.65339.25375.33415.24
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 31.7551.6942.90-6.3026.7426.3329.1332.2335.6639.45
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -73.11-28.30-2.47-2.22-6.40-14.21-15.72-17.40-19.25-21.29
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -41.3623.3940.43-8.5220.3312.1213.4114.8416.4118.16

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.69
Beta 1.615
Diluted Shares Outstanding 45.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.153
Total Debt 59.38
Total Equity 76.39
Total Capital 135.78
Debt Weighting 43.74
Equity Weighting 56.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 469.73669.92157.40128.71250.53277.17306.65339.25375.33415.24
Operating Cash Flow 31.7551.6942.90-6.3026.7426.3329.1332.2335.6639.45
Capital Expenditure -73.11-28.30-2.47-2.22-6.40-14.21-15.72-17.40-19.25-21.29
Free Cash Flow -41.3623.3940.43-8.5220.3312.1213.4114.8416.4118.16
WACC
PV LFCF 7.377.517.657.797.93
SUM PV LFCF 57.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.64
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18.52
Terminal Value 278.95
Present Value of Terminal Value 184.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 242.19
Net Debt 53.03
Equity Value 189.16
Shares Outstanding 45.20
Equity Value Per Share 4.18