Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF.TO)
$1.69
-0.01 (-0.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 469.73 | 669.92 | 157.40 | 128.71 | 250.53 | 277.17 | 306.65 | 339.25 | 375.33 | 415.24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 31.75 | 51.69 | 42.90 | -6.30 | 26.74 | 26.33 | 29.13 | 32.23 | 35.66 | 39.45 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -73.11 | -28.30 | -2.47 | -2.22 | -6.40 | -14.21 | -15.72 | -17.40 | -19.25 | -21.29 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | -41.36 | 23.39 | 40.43 | -8.52 | 20.33 | 12.12 | 13.41 | 14.84 | 16.41 | 18.16 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 1.69 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.615 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 45.20 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.28 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.42% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.153 |
Total Debt | 59.38 |
Total Equity | 76.39 |
Total Capital | 135.78 |
Debt Weighting | 43.74 |
Equity Weighting | 56.26 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 469.73 | 669.92 | 157.40 | 128.71 | 250.53 | 277.17 | 306.65 | 339.25 | 375.33 | 415.24 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 31.75 | 51.69 | 42.90 | -6.30 | 26.74 | 26.33 | 29.13 | 32.23 | 35.66 | 39.45 |
Capital Expenditure | -73.11 | -28.30 | -2.47 | -2.22 | -6.40 | -14.21 | -15.72 | -17.40 | -19.25 | -21.29 |
Free Cash Flow | -41.36 | 23.39 | 40.43 | -8.52 | 20.33 | 12.12 | 13.41 | 14.84 | 16.41 | 18.16 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 7.37 | 7.51 | 7.65 | 7.79 | 7.93 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 57.87 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.64 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 18.52 |
Terminal Value | 278.95 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 184.32 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 242.19 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 53.03 |
Equity Value | 189.16 |
Shares Outstanding | 45.20 |
Equity Value Per Share | 4.18 |