Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Conifex Timber Inc. (CFF.TO)

$1.69

-0.01 (-0.59%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 4.18 | 1.69 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	469.73	669.92	157.40	128.71	250.53	277.17	306.65	339.25	375.33	415.24
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	31.75	51.69	42.90	-6.30	26.74	26.33	29.13	32.23	35.66	39.45
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-73.11	-28.30	-2.47	-2.22	-6.40	-14.21	-15.72	-17.40	-19.25	-21.29
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	-41.36	23.39	40.43	-8.52	20.33	12.12	13.41	14.84	16.41	18.16

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.69
Beta	1.615
Diluted Shares Outstanding	45.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.28
After-tax Cost of Debt	5.42%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	11.153
Total Debt	59.38
Total Equity	76.39
Total Capital	135.78
Debt Weighting	43.74
Equity Weighting	56.26
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	469.73	669.92	157.40	128.71	250.53	277.17	306.65	339.25	375.33	415.24
Operating Cash Flow	31.75	51.69	42.90	-6.30	26.74	26.33	29.13	32.23	35.66	39.45
Capital Expenditure	-73.11	-28.30	-2.47	-2.22	-6.40	-14.21	-15.72	-17.40	-19.25	-21.29
Free Cash Flow	-41.36	23.39	40.43	-8.52	20.33	12.12	13.41	14.84	16.41	18.16
WACC
PV LFCF						7.37	7.51	7.65	7.79	7.93
SUM PV LFCF										57.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.64
Free cash flow (t + 1)	18.52
Terminal Value	278.95
Present Value of Terminal Value	184.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	242.19
Net Debt	53.03
Equity Value	189.16
Shares Outstanding	45.20
Equity Value Per Share	4.18