Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Canfor Corporation (CFP.TO)
$16.87
-0.13 (-0.76%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,044.40 | 4,658.30 | 5,454.40 | 7,684.90 | 7,426.70 | 8,298.77 | 9,273.25 | 10,362.15 | 11,578.92 | 12,938.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 536.10 | 200.70 | 1,073.60 | 1,914.90 | 1,113 | 1,236.91 | 1,382.15 | 1,544.45 | 1,725.80 | 1,928.45 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -401.40 | -302.80 | -201.50 | -428.20 | -625.30 | -533.50 | -596.15 | -666.15 | -744.37 | -831.78 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 134.70 | -102.10 | 872.10 | 1,486.70 | 487.70 | 703.40 | 786 | 878.30 | 981.43 | 1,096.67 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 16.87 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.040 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 123.20 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 28.98 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.94% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.200 |
| Total Debt | 392.40 |
| Total Equity | 2,078.36 |
| Total Capital | 2,470.76 |
| Debt Weighting | 15.88 |
| Equity Weighting | 84.12 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,044.40 | 4,658.30 | 5,454.40 | 7,684.90 | 7,426.70 | 8,298.77 | 9,273.25 | 10,362.15 | 11,578.92 | 12,938.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 536.10 | 200.70 | 1,073.60 | 1,914.90 | 1,113 | 1,236.91 | 1,382.15 | 1,544.45 | 1,725.80 | 1,928.45 |
| Capital Expenditure | -401.40 | -302.80 | -201.50 | -428.20 | -625.30 | -533.50 | -596.15 | -666.15 | -744.37 | -831.78 |
| Free Cash Flow | 134.70 | -102.10 | 872.10 | 1,486.70 | 487.70 | 703.40 | 786 | 878.30 | 981.43 | 1,096.67 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 623.97 | 618.51 | 613.09 | 607.72 | 602.39 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 3,065.68 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.73 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,118.61 |
| Terminal Value | 10,425.04 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,726.38 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 8,792.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -876.30 |
| Equity Value | 9,668.35 |
| Shares Outstanding | 123.20 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 78.48 |