Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)
$112.73
-1.59 (-1.39%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 14,321 | 14,917 | 13,819 | 14,477 | 17,107 | 17,950.77 | 18,836.16 | 19,765.22 | 20,740.11 | 21,763.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 5,918 | 5,923 | 6,165 | 6,971 | 6,667 | 7,638.68 | 8,015.44 | 8,410.79 | 8,825.64 | 9,260.95 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,531 | -3,865 | -2,863 | -2,891 | -2,750 | -3,853.27 | -4,043.33 | -4,242.76 | -4,452.03 | -4,671.61 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2,387 | 2,058 | 3,302 | 4,080 | 3,917 | 3,785.41 | 3,972.11 | 4,168.03 | 4,373.61 | 4,589.33 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 112.73 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.684 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 688.30 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.32 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.63% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.863 |
| Total Debt | 15,770 |
| Total Equity | 77,592.06 |
| Total Capital | 93,362.06 |
| Debt Weighting | 16.89 |
| Equity Weighting | 83.11 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 14,321 | 14,917 | 13,819 | 14,477 | 17,107 | 17,950.77 | 18,836.16 | 19,765.22 | 20,740.11 | 21,763.08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 5,918 | 5,923 | 6,165 | 6,971 | 6,667 | 7,638.68 | 8,015.44 | 8,410.79 | 8,825.64 | 9,260.95 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3,531 | -3,865 | -2,863 | -2,891 | -2,750 | -3,853.27 | -4,043.33 | -4,242.76 | -4,452.03 | -4,671.61 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,387 | 2,058 | 3,302 | 4,080 | 3,917 | 3,785.41 | 3,972.11 | 4,168.03 | 4,373.61 | 4,589.33 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 3,566.09 | 3,525.18 | 3,484.74 | 3,444.77 | 3,405.25 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 17,426.04 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.15 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4,681.12 |
| Terminal Value | 112,798.06 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 83,695.41 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 101,121.45 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 15,442 |
| Equity Value | 85,679.45 |
| Shares Outstanding | 688.30 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 124.48 |