Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

$61.15

-1.89 (-3.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 137.83 | 61.15 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 17,66922,28224,39417,49132,85440,666.8650,337.6662,308.2377,125.4795,466.32
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 7,26210,1218,8294,71414,47815,757.1519,504.2924,142.5229,883.7436,990.25
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,698-4,441-3,608-2,560-4,493-7,289.30-9,022.73-11,168.39-13,824.29-17,111.79
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 2,5645,6805,2212,1549,9858,467.8510,481.5612,974.1316,059.4419,878.47

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 61.15
Beta 2.121
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,181.77
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.38%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.899
Total Debt 16,278
Total Equity 72,265.11
Total Capital 88,543.11
Debt Weighting 18.38
Equity Weighting 81.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 17,66922,28224,39417,49132,85440,666.8650,337.6662,308.2377,125.4795,466.32
Operating Cash Flow 7,26210,1218,8294,71414,47815,757.1519,504.2924,142.5229,883.7436,990.25
Capital Expenditure -4,698-4,441-3,608-2,560-4,493-7,289.30-9,022.73-11,168.39-13,824.29-17,111.79
Free Cash Flow 2,5645,6805,2212,1549,9858,467.8510,481.5612,974.1316,059.4419,878.47
WACC
PV LFCF 7,618.408,484.129,448.2110,521.8611,717.52
SUM PV LFCF 47,790.12

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.15
Free cash flow (t + 1) 20,276.04
Terminal Value 221,596.04
Present Value of Terminal Value 130,621.50

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 178,411.61
Net Debt 15,534
Equity Value 162,877.61
Shares Outstanding 1,181.77
Equity Value Per Share 137.83