Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)
$61.15
-1.89 (-3.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,669 | 22,282 | 24,394 | 17,491 | 32,854 | 40,666.86 | 50,337.66 | 62,308.23 | 77,125.47 | 95,466.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 7,262 | 10,121 | 8,829 | 4,714 | 14,478 | 15,757.15 | 19,504.29 | 24,142.52 | 29,883.74 | 36,990.25 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4,698 | -4,441 | -3,608 | -2,560 | -4,493 | -7,289.30 | -9,022.73 | -11,168.39 | -13,824.29 | -17,111.79 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2,564 | 5,680 | 5,221 | 2,154 | 9,985 | 8,467.85 | 10,481.56 | 12,974.13 | 16,059.44 | 19,878.47 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 61.15 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.121 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,181.77 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.67 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.38% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.899 |
| Total Debt | 16,278 |
| Total Equity | 72,265.11 |
| Total Capital | 88,543.11 |
| Debt Weighting | 18.38 |
| Equity Weighting | 81.62 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,669 | 22,282 | 24,394 | 17,491 | 32,854 | 40,666.86 | 50,337.66 | 62,308.23 | 77,125.47 | 95,466.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 7,262 | 10,121 | 8,829 | 4,714 | 14,478 | 15,757.15 | 19,504.29 | 24,142.52 | 29,883.74 | 36,990.25 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4,698 | -4,441 | -3,608 | -2,560 | -4,493 | -7,289.30 | -9,022.73 | -11,168.39 | -13,824.29 | -17,111.79 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,564 | 5,680 | 5,221 | 2,154 | 9,985 | 8,467.85 | 10,481.56 | 12,974.13 | 16,059.44 | 19,878.47 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 7,618.40 | 8,484.12 | 9,448.21 | 10,521.86 | 11,717.52 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 47,790.12 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.15 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 20,276.04 |
| Terminal Value | 221,596.04 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 130,621.50 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 178,411.61 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 15,534 |
| Equity Value | 162,877.61 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,181.77 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 137.83 |