Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)
$56.22
+0.37 (+0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 22,282 | 24,394 | 17,491 | 32,854 | 49,530 | 64,360.79 | 83,632.38 | 108,674.46 | 141,214.91 | 183,498.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,121 | 8,829 | 4,714 | 14,478 | 19,391 | 24,686.79 | 32,078.76 | 41,684.12 | 54,165.62 | 70,384.46 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4,441 | -3,608 | -2,560 | -4,493 | -5,136 | -9,448.50 | -12,277.67 | -15,953.98 | -20,731.09 | -26,938.62 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 5,680 | 5,221 | 2,154 | 9,985 | 14,255 | 15,238.28 | 19,801.09 | 25,730.14 | 33,434.53 | 43,445.84 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 56.22 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.022 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,181.77 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.19 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.83% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 13.328 |
| Total Debt | 11,445 |
| Total Equity | 66,439 |
| Total Capital | 77,884 |
| Debt Weighting | 14.69 |
| Equity Weighting | 85.31 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 22,282 | 24,394 | 17,491 | 32,854 | 49,530 | 64,360.79 | 83,632.38 | 108,674.46 | 141,214.91 | 183,498.97 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 10,121 | 8,829 | 4,714 | 14,478 | 19,391 | 24,686.79 | 32,078.76 | 41,684.12 | 54,165.62 | 70,384.46 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4,441 | -3,608 | -2,560 | -4,493 | -5,136 | -9,448.50 | -12,277.67 | -15,953.98 | -20,731.09 | -26,938.62 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5,680 | 5,221 | 2,154 | 9,985 | 14,255 | 15,238.28 | 19,801.09 | 25,730.14 | 33,434.53 | 43,445.84 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 13,614.12 | 15,805.06 | 18,348.59 | 21,301.45 | 24,729.52 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 93,798.73 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.93 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 44,314.76 |
| Terminal Value | 446,271.50 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 254,019.25 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 347,817.99 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 10,525 |
| Equity Value | 337,292.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,181.77 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 285.41 |