Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ)

$56.22

+0.37 (+0.66%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 285.41 | 56.22 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,28224,39417,49132,85449,53064,360.7983,632.38108,674.46141,214.91183,498.97
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 10,1218,8294,71414,47819,39124,686.7932,078.7641,684.1254,165.6270,384.46
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,441-3,608-2,560-4,493-5,136-9,448.50-12,277.67-15,953.98-20,731.09-26,938.62
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 5,6805,2212,1549,98514,25515,238.2819,801.0925,730.1433,434.5343,445.84

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 56.22
Beta 2.022
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,181.77
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.19
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.83%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.328
Total Debt 11,445
Total Equity 66,439
Total Capital 77,884
Debt Weighting 14.69
Equity Weighting 85.31
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 22,28224,39417,49132,85449,53064,360.7983,632.38108,674.46141,214.91183,498.97
Operating Cash Flow 10,1218,8294,71414,47819,39124,686.7932,078.7641,684.1254,165.6270,384.46
Capital Expenditure -4,441-3,608-2,560-4,493-5,136-9,448.50-12,277.67-15,953.98-20,731.09-26,938.62
Free Cash Flow 5,6805,2212,1549,98514,25515,238.2819,801.0925,730.1433,434.5343,445.84
WACC
PV LFCF 13,614.1215,805.0618,348.5921,301.4524,729.52
SUM PV LFCF 93,798.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) 44,314.76
Terminal Value 446,271.50
Present Value of Terminal Value 254,019.25

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 347,817.99
Net Debt 10,525
Equity Value 337,292.99
Shares Outstanding 1,181.77
Equity Value Per Share 285.41