Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

ConocoPhillips (COP)

$108.17

+0.06 (+0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 178.43 | 108.17 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 29,10636,41732,56718,78445,82859,140.8276,320.9698,491.85127,103.28164,026.19
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 7,07712,93411,1044,80216,99618,520.2623,900.3130,843.2439,803.0651,365.66
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,591-6,750-6,636-4,715-5,324-10,811.37-13,952.03-18,005.03-23,235.40-29,985.18
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 2,4866,1844,4688711,6727,708.899,948.2812,838.2116,567.6621,380.48

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 108.17
Beta 1.309
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,328.15
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 36.45
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.59%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.799
Total Debt 19,934
Total Equity 143,666.09
Total Capital 163,600.09
Debt Weighting 12.18
Equity Weighting 87.82
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 29,10636,41732,56718,78445,82859,140.8276,320.9698,491.85127,103.28164,026.19
Operating Cash Flow 7,07712,93411,1044,80216,99618,520.2623,900.3130,843.2439,803.0651,365.66
Capital Expenditure -4,591-6,750-6,636-4,715-5,324-10,811.37-13,952.03-18,005.03-23,235.40-29,985.18
Free Cash Flow 2,4866,1844,4688711,6727,708.899,948.2812,838.2116,567.6621,380.48
WACC
PV LFCF 4,586.455,428.096,424.187,603.068,998.27
SUM PV LFCF 50,929.57

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 21,808.09
Terminal Value 309,774.05
Present Value of Terminal Value 200,962.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 251,892.43
Net Debt 14,906
Equity Value 236,986.43
Shares Outstanding 1,328.15
Equity Value Per Share 178.43