Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
ConocoPhillips (COP)
$108.17
+0.06 (+0.06%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 29,106 | 36,417 | 32,567 | 18,784 | 45,828 | 59,140.82 | 76,320.96 | 98,491.85 | 127,103.28 | 164,026.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 7,077 | 12,934 | 11,104 | 4,802 | 16,996 | 18,520.26 | 23,900.31 | 30,843.24 | 39,803.06 | 51,365.66 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -4,591 | -6,750 | -6,636 | -4,715 | -5,324 | -10,811.37 | -13,952.03 | -18,005.03 | -23,235.40 | -29,985.18 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 2,486 | 6,184 | 4,468 | 87 | 11,672 | 7,708.89 | 9,948.28 | 12,838.21 | 16,567.66 | 21,380.48 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 108.17 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.309 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,328.15 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 36.45 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.59% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 9.799 |
Total Debt | 19,934 |
Total Equity | 143,666.09 |
Total Capital | 163,600.09 |
Debt Weighting | 12.18 |
Equity Weighting | 87.82 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 29,106 | 36,417 | 32,567 | 18,784 | 45,828 | 59,140.82 | 76,320.96 | 98,491.85 | 127,103.28 | 164,026.19 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 7,077 | 12,934 | 11,104 | 4,802 | 16,996 | 18,520.26 | 23,900.31 | 30,843.24 | 39,803.06 | 51,365.66 |
Capital Expenditure | -4,591 | -6,750 | -6,636 | -4,715 | -5,324 | -10,811.37 | -13,952.03 | -18,005.03 | -23,235.40 | -29,985.18 |
Free Cash Flow | 2,486 | 6,184 | 4,468 | 87 | 11,672 | 7,708.89 | 9,948.28 | 12,838.21 | 16,567.66 | 21,380.48 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 4,586.45 | 5,428.09 | 6,424.18 | 7,603.06 | 8,998.27 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 50,929.57 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.04 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 21,808.09 |
Terminal Value | 309,774.05 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 200,962.86 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 251,892.43 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 14,906 |
Equity Value | 236,986.43 |
Shares Outstanding | 1,328.15 |
Equity Value Per Share | 178.43 |