Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

CSX Corporation (CSX)

$32.05

+0.57 (+1.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 18.16 | 32.05 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 11,40812,25011,93710,58312,52212,891.5413,271.9913,663.6714,066.9114,482.05
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 3,4724,6414,8504,2635,0994,897.565,042.095,190.895,344.095,501.80
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,040-1,745-1,657-1,626-1,791-1,951.15-2,008.73-2,068.01-2,129.04-2,191.87
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 1,4322,8963,1932,6373,3082,946.413,033.373,122.893,215.053,309.93

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.05
Beta 1.212
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,255
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.63
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.28%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.464
Total Debt 16,844
Total Equity 72,272.75
Total Capital 89,116.75
Debt Weighting 18.90
Equity Weighting 81.10
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 11,40812,25011,93710,58312,52212,891.5413,271.9913,663.6714,066.9114,482.05
Operating Cash Flow 3,4724,6414,8504,2635,0994,897.565,042.095,190.895,344.095,501.80
Capital Expenditure -2,040-1,745-1,657-1,626-1,791-1,951.15-2,008.73-2,068.01-2,129.04-2,191.87
Free Cash Flow 1,4322,8963,1932,6373,3082,946.413,033.373,122.893,215.053,309.93
WACC
PV LFCF 2,741.362,625.852,515.202,409.222,307.71
SUM PV LFCF 12,599.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.48
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,376.13
Terminal Value 61,608.17
Present Value of Terminal Value 42,953.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 55,552.99
Net Debt 14,605
Equity Value 40,947.99
Shares Outstanding 2,255
Equity Value Per Share 18.16