Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)
$21.36
+0.24 (+1.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,314 | 21,389 | 21,353 | 13,591 | 48,811 | 78,849.14 | 127,372.66 | 205,757.40 | 332,379.87 | 536,925.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,059 | 2,154 | 3,285 | 273 | 5,919 | 9,029.44 | 14,586.13 | 23,562.38 | 38,062.60 | 61,486.21 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,670 | -1,377 | -1,183 | -859 | -2,563 | -5,234.75 | -8,456.19 | -13,660.11 | -22,066.49 | -35,646.15 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,389 | 777 | 2,102 | -586 | 3,356 | 3,794.69 | 6,129.94 | 9,902.28 | 15,996.11 | 25,840.07 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 21.36 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 3.408 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,045.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 55.36 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.04% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 18.873 |
| Total Debt | 15,421 |
| Total Equity | 43,683.34 |
| Total Capital | 59,104.34 |
| Debt Weighting | 26.09 |
| Equity Weighting | 73.91 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 17,314 | 21,389 | 21,353 | 13,591 | 48,811 | 78,849.14 | 127,372.66 | 205,757.40 | 332,379.87 | 536,925.43 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,059 | 2,154 | 3,285 | 273 | 5,919 | 9,029.44 | 14,586.13 | 23,562.38 | 38,062.60 | 61,486.21 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,670 | -1,377 | -1,183 | -859 | -2,563 | -5,234.75 | -8,456.19 | -13,660.11 | -22,066.49 | -35,646.15 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,389 | 777 | 2,102 | -586 | 3,356 | 3,794.69 | 6,129.94 | 9,902.28 | 15,996.11 | 25,840.07 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 3,307.21 | 4,656.14 | 6,555.27 | 9,229.01 | 12,993.30 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 36,740.93 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 26,356.87 |
| Terminal Value | 206,882.80 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 104,027.98 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 140,768.91 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 12,548 |
| Equity Value | 128,220.91 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2,045.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 62.70 |