Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)
$21.36
+0.24 (+1.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 17,314 | 21,389 | 21,353 | 13,591 | 48,811 | 78,849.14 | 127,372.66 | 205,757.40 | 332,379.87 | 536,925.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 3,059 | 2,154 | 3,285 | 273 | 5,919 | 9,029.44 | 14,586.13 | 23,562.38 | 38,062.60 | 61,486.21 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,670 | -1,377 | -1,183 | -859 | -2,563 | -5,234.75 | -8,456.19 | -13,660.11 | -22,066.49 | -35,646.15 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 1,389 | 777 | 2,102 | -586 | 3,356 | 3,794.69 | 6,129.94 | 9,902.28 | 15,996.11 | 25,840.07 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 21.36 |
---|---|
Beta | 3.408 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,045.10 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 55.36 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.04% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 18.873 |
Total Debt | 15,421 |
Total Equity | 43,683.34 |
Total Capital | 59,104.34 |
Debt Weighting | 26.09 |
Equity Weighting | 73.91 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 17,314 | 21,389 | 21,353 | 13,591 | 48,811 | 78,849.14 | 127,372.66 | 205,757.40 | 332,379.87 | 536,925.43 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 3,059 | 2,154 | 3,285 | 273 | 5,919 | 9,029.44 | 14,586.13 | 23,562.38 | 38,062.60 | 61,486.21 |
Capital Expenditure | -1,670 | -1,377 | -1,183 | -859 | -2,563 | -5,234.75 | -8,456.19 | -13,660.11 | -22,066.49 | -35,646.15 |
Free Cash Flow | 1,389 | 777 | 2,102 | -586 | 3,356 | 3,794.69 | 6,129.94 | 9,902.28 | 15,996.11 | 25,840.07 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 3,307.21 | 4,656.14 | 6,555.27 | 9,229.01 | 12,993.30 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 36,740.93 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 14.74 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 26,356.87 |
Terminal Value | 206,882.80 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 104,027.98 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 140,768.91 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 12,548 |
Equity Value | 128,220.91 |
Shares Outstanding | 2,045.10 |
Equity Value Per Share | 62.70 |