Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)

$17.39

+0.07 (+0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 133.31 | 17.39 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,38921,35313,59148,81171,765120,143.43201,134.88336,724.53563,718.27943,733.70
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 2,1543,2852735,91911,40313,330.9422,317.6337,362.4662,549.34104,715.29
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,377-1,183-859-2,563-3,758-6,916.86-11,579.68-19,385.81-32,454.22-54,332.36
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 7772,102-5863,3567,6456,414.0710,737.9517,976.6530,095.1250,382.93

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 17.39
Beta 2.908
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,045.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.15%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.469
Total Debt 11,642
Total Equity 35,564.29
Total Capital 47,206.29
Debt Weighting 24.66
Equity Weighting 75.34
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 21,38921,35313,59148,81171,765120,143.43201,134.88336,724.53563,718.27943,733.70
Operating Cash Flow 2,1543,2852735,91911,40313,330.9422,317.6337,362.4662,549.34104,715.29
Capital Expenditure -1,377-1,183-859-2,563-3,758-6,916.86-11,579.68-19,385.81-32,454.22-54,332.36
Free Cash Flow 7772,102-5863,3567,6456,414.0710,737.9517,976.6530,095.1250,382.93
WACC
PV LFCF 5,605.248,200.5211,997.4517,552.4025,679.35
SUM PV LFCF 69,034.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.43
Free cash flow (t + 1) 51,390.59
Terminal Value 413,439.99
Present Value of Terminal Value 210,723.51

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 279,758.47
Net Debt 7,118
Equity Value 272,640.47
Shares Outstanding 2,045.10
Equity Value Per Share 133.31