Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)
$17.39
+0.07 (+0.40%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 21,389 | 21,353 | 13,591 | 48,811 | 71,765 | 120,143.43 | 201,134.88 | 336,724.53 | 563,718.27 | 943,733.70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,154 | 3,285 | 273 | 5,919 | 11,403 | 13,330.94 | 22,317.63 | 37,362.46 | 62,549.34 | 104,715.29 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,377 | -1,183 | -859 | -2,563 | -3,758 | -6,916.86 | -11,579.68 | -19,385.81 | -32,454.22 | -54,332.36 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 777 | 2,102 | -586 | 3,356 | 7,645 | 6,414.07 | 10,737.95 | 17,976.65 | 30,095.12 | 50,382.93 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.39 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.908 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,045.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 26.13 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.15% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 17.469 |
| Total Debt | 11,642 |
| Total Equity | 35,564.29 |
| Total Capital | 47,206.29 |
| Debt Weighting | 24.66 |
| Equity Weighting | 75.34 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 21,389 | 21,353 | 13,591 | 48,811 | 71,765 | 120,143.43 | 201,134.88 | 336,724.53 | 563,718.27 | 943,733.70 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,154 | 3,285 | 273 | 5,919 | 11,403 | 13,330.94 | 22,317.63 | 37,362.46 | 62,549.34 | 104,715.29 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,377 | -1,183 | -859 | -2,563 | -3,758 | -6,916.86 | -11,579.68 | -19,385.81 | -32,454.22 | -54,332.36 |
| Free Cash Flow | 777 | 2,102 | -586 | 3,356 | 7,645 | 6,414.07 | 10,737.95 | 17,976.65 | 30,095.12 | 50,382.93 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 5,605.24 | 8,200.52 | 11,997.45 | 17,552.40 | 25,679.35 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 69,034.96 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.43 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 51,390.59 |
| Terminal Value | 413,439.99 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 210,723.51 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 279,758.47 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 7,118 |
| Equity Value | 272,640.47 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2,045.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 133.31 |