Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE)

$21.36

+0.24 (+1.14%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 62.70 | 21.36 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 17,31421,38921,35313,59148,81178,849.14127,372.66205,757.40332,379.87536,925.43
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 3,0592,1543,2852735,9199,029.4414,586.1323,562.3838,062.6061,486.21
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,670-1,377-1,183-859-2,563-5,234.75-8,456.19-13,660.11-22,066.49-35,646.15
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 1,3897772,102-5863,3563,794.696,129.949,902.2815,996.1125,840.07

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.36
Beta 3.408
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,045.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 55.36
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 18.873
Total Debt 15,421
Total Equity 43,683.34
Total Capital 59,104.34
Debt Weighting 26.09
Equity Weighting 73.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 17,31421,38921,35313,59148,81178,849.14127,372.66205,757.40332,379.87536,925.43
Operating Cash Flow 3,0592,1543,2852735,9199,029.4414,586.1323,562.3838,062.6061,486.21
Capital Expenditure -1,670-1,377-1,183-859-2,563-5,234.75-8,456.19-13,660.11-22,066.49-35,646.15
Free Cash Flow 1,3897772,102-5863,3563,794.696,129.949,902.2815,996.1125,840.07
WACC
PV LFCF 3,307.214,656.146,555.279,229.0112,993.30
SUM PV LFCF 36,740.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 14.74
Free cash flow (t + 1) 26,356.87
Terminal Value 206,882.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 104,027.98

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 140,768.91
Net Debt 12,548
Equity Value 128,220.91
Shares Outstanding 2,045.10
Equity Value Per Share 62.70