Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

China Yuchai International Limited (CYD)

$9.09

+0.43 (+4.97%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 4.81 | 9.09 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,602.12	2,882.57	3,292.99	3,402.55	2,564.90	2,588.78	2,612.89	2,637.22	2,661.78	2,686.56
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	107.30	253.28	226.46	80.73	142.09	143.42	144.75	146.10	147.46	148.83
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-94.14	-202.24	-173.57	-137.52	-127.90	-129.09	-130.30	-131.51	-132.73	-133.97
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	13.16	51.04	52.89	-56.80	14.19	14.32	14.46	14.59	14.73	14.86

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 9.09
Beta	1.132
Diluted Shares Outstanding	40.86
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	44.62
After-tax Cost of Debt	2.77%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.034
Total Debt	-
Total Equity	371.38
Total Capital	371.38
Debt Weighting	0.00
Equity Weighting	100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	2,602.12	2,882.57	3,292.99	3,402.55	2,564.90	2,588.78	2,612.89	2,637.22	2,661.78	2,686.56
Operating Cash Flow	107.30	253.28	226.46	80.73	142.09	143.42	144.75	146.10	147.46	148.83
Capital Expenditure	-94.14	-202.24	-173.57	-137.52	-127.90	-129.09	-130.30	-131.51	-132.73	-133.97
Free Cash Flow	13.16	51.04	52.89	-56.80	14.19	14.32	14.46	14.59	14.73	14.86
WACC
PV LFCF						13.14	12.16	11.26	10.42	9.65
SUM PV LFCF										56.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.03
Free cash flow (t + 1)	15.16
Terminal Value	215.66
Present Value of Terminal Value	139.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	196.60
Net Debt	-
Equity Value	196.60
Shares Outstanding	40.86
Equity Value Per Share	4.81