Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
FibroGen, Inc. (FGEN)
$17.88
+0.56 (+3.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 212.96 | 256.58 | 176.32 | 235.31 | 140.73 | 134.57 | 128.67 | 123.03 | 117.63 | 112.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -76.14 | -78.71 | 81.60 | -82.23 | -145.93 | -42.74 | -40.86 | -39.07 | -37.36 | -35.72 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -8.02 | -5.76 | -3.99 | -30.19 | -38.74 | -13.09 | -12.51 | -11.97 | -11.44 | -10.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -84.16 | -84.47 | 77.61 | -112.42 | -184.67 | -55.82 | -53.38 | -51.04 | -48.80 | -46.66 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 17.88 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.796 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 93.58 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.41 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.59% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.449 |
| Total Debt | 89.89 |
| Total Equity | 1,673.25 |
| Total Capital | 1,763.13 |
| Debt Weighting | 5.10 |
| Equity Weighting | 94.90 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 212.96 | 256.58 | 176.32 | 235.31 | 140.73 | 134.57 | 128.67 | 123.03 | 117.63 | 112.48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -76.14 | -78.71 | 81.60 | -82.23 | -145.93 | -42.74 | -40.86 | -39.07 | -37.36 | -35.72 |
| Capital Expenditure | -8.02 | -5.76 | -3.99 | -30.19 | -38.74 | -13.09 | -12.51 | -11.97 | -11.44 | -10.94 |
| Free Cash Flow | -84.16 | -84.47 | 77.61 | -112.42 | -184.67 | -55.82 | -53.38 | -51.04 | -48.80 | -46.66 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -48.62 | -43.39 | -38.72 | -34.55 | -30.83 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -210.13 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.15 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -47.59 |
| Terminal Value | -924.16 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -654.31 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -864.45 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -65.81 |
| Equity Value | -798.63 |
| Shares Outstanding | 93.58 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -8.53 |