Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Five Star Senior Living Inc. (FVE)
$2.94
+0.07 (+2.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,396.11 | 1,390.39 | 1,415.14 | 1,163.74 | 934.59 | 850.28 | 773.58 | 703.79 | 640.30 | 582.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.12 | -54.22 | -4.11 | 51.38 | -7.57 | 1.09 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -71.09 | -48.98 | -57.49 | -5.43 | -9.44 | -24.07 | -21.90 | -19.92 | -18.13 | -16.49 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -53.98 | -103.20 | -61.60 | 45.95 | -17.01 | -22.98 | -20.91 | -19.02 | -17.31 | -15.74 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.94 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.025 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 31.59 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.79 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 8.10% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.095 |
| Total Debt | 20.77 |
| Total Equity | 92.88 |
| Total Capital | 113.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 18.28 |
| Equity Weighting | 81.72 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,396.11 | 1,390.39 | 1,415.14 | 1,163.74 | 934.59 | 850.28 | 773.58 | 703.79 | 640.30 | 582.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 17.12 | -54.22 | -4.11 | 51.38 | -7.57 | 1.09 | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Capital Expenditure | -71.09 | -48.98 | -57.49 | -5.43 | -9.44 | -24.07 | -21.90 | -19.92 | -18.13 | -16.49 |
| Free Cash Flow | -53.98 | -103.20 | -61.60 | 45.95 | -17.01 | -22.98 | -20.91 | -19.02 | -17.31 | -15.74 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -21.10 | -17.63 | -14.72 | -12.30 | -10.27 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -76.03 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.91 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -16.06 |
| Terminal Value | -232.40 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -151.67 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -227.70 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -46.22 |
| Equity Value | -181.48 |
| Shares Outstanding | 31.59 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -5.74 |