Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HAR.DE)
41.23 €
+0.79 (+1.97%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,647.22 | 5,716.87 | 5,361.79 | 4,054.38 | 5,336.31 | 5,366.41 | 5,396.69 | 5,427.14 | 5,457.76 | 5,488.55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,005.06 | 1,205.92 | 868.27 | 1,177.89 | 975.70 | 1,099.27 | 1,105.48 | 1,111.71 | 1,117.99 | 1,124.29 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -206.29 | -213.52 | -181.44 | -131.05 | -120.18 | -174.48 | -175.46 | -176.45 | -177.45 | -178.45 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 798.77 | 992.40 | 686.83 | 1,046.84 | 855.52 | 924.80 | 930.02 | 935.26 | 940.54 | 945.85 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 41.23 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.426 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 154.98 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.65 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.97% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.248 |
| Total Debt | 6,889.40 |
| Total Equity | 6,389.83 |
| Total Capital | 13,279.22 |
| Debt Weighting | 51.88 |
| Equity Weighting | 48.12 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,647.22 | 5,716.87 | 5,361.79 | 4,054.38 | 5,336.31 | 5,366.41 | 5,396.69 | 5,427.14 | 5,457.76 | 5,488.55 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1,005.06 | 1,205.92 | 868.27 | 1,177.89 | 975.70 | 1,099.27 | 1,105.48 | 1,111.71 | 1,117.99 | 1,124.29 |
| Capital Expenditure | -206.29 | -213.52 | -181.44 | -131.05 | -120.18 | -174.48 | -175.46 | -176.45 | -177.45 | -178.45 |
| Free Cash Flow | 798.77 | 992.40 | 686.83 | 1,046.84 | 855.52 | 924.80 | 930.02 | 935.26 | 940.54 | 945.85 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 755.12 | 709.77 | 667.14 | 627.07 | 589.41 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 3,833 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.99 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 964.76 |
| Terminal Value | 19,333.94 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 13,791.28 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 17,624.28 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,014.65 |
| Equity Value | 12,609.63 |
| Shares Outstanding | 154.98 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 81.36 |