Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HAR.DE)

44.585 €

-0.34 (-0.77%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 80.46 | 44.585 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,647.225,716.875,361.794,054.385,336.315,366.415,396.695,427.145,457.765,488.55
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,005.061,205.92868.271,177.89975.701,099.271,105.481,111.711,117.991,124.29
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -206.29-213.52-181.44-131.05-120.18-174.48-175.46-176.45-177.45-178.45
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 798.77992.40686.831,046.84855.52924.80930.02935.26940.54945.85

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.585
Beta 1.375
Diluted Shares Outstanding 154.98
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.97%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.089
Total Debt 6,889.40
Total Equity 6,909.78
Total Capital 13,799.18
Debt Weighting 49.93
Equity Weighting 50.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,647.225,716.875,361.794,054.385,336.315,366.415,396.695,427.145,457.765,488.55
Operating Cash Flow 1,005.061,205.92868.271,177.89975.701,099.271,105.481,111.711,117.991,124.29
Capital Expenditure -206.29-213.52-181.44-131.05-120.18-174.48-175.46-176.45-177.45-178.45
Free Cash Flow 798.77992.40686.831,046.84855.52924.80930.02935.26940.54945.85
WACC
PV LFCF 864.06811.86762.81716.73673.43
SUM PV LFCF 3,828.89

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.03
Free cash flow (t + 1) 964.76
Terminal Value 19,180.19
Present Value of Terminal Value 13,656.06

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 17,484.94
Net Debt 5,014.65
Equity Value 12,470.29
Shares Outstanding 154.98
Equity Value Per Share 80.46