Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC)

$35.04

+1.64 (+4.91%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 188.51 | 35.04 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,378.01	1,268.31	782.74	1,059.22	1,738.74	1,970.12	2,232.29	2,529.35	2,865.94	3,247.33
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	559.40	532.81	112.63	351.54	283.85	577.27	654.09	741.14	839.76	951.51
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-101.62	-107.28	-87.49	-57.89	-205.24	-174.47	-197.69	-224	-253.81	-287.58
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	457.78	425.54	25.14	293.65	78.61	402.80	456.40	517.14	585.96	663.93

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 35.04
Beta	1.119
Diluted Shares Outstanding	51.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	18.11
After-tax Cost of Debt	4.64%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.974
Total Debt	335.68
Total Equity	1,812.09
Total Capital	2,147.77
Debt Weighting	15.63
Equity Weighting	84.37
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,378.01	1,268.31	782.74	1,059.22	1,738.74	1,970.12	2,232.29	2,529.35	2,865.94	3,247.33
Operating Cash Flow	559.40	532.81	112.63	351.54	283.85	577.27	654.09	741.14	839.76	951.51
Capital Expenditure	-101.62	-107.28	-87.49	-57.89	-205.24	-174.47	-197.69	-224	-253.81	-287.58
Free Cash Flow	457.78	425.54	25.14	293.65	78.61	402.80	456.40	517.14	585.96	663.93
WACC
PV LFCF						371.93	389.13	407.12	425.94	445.64
SUM PV LFCF										2,039.76

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.30
Free cash flow (t + 1)	677.21
Terminal Value	10,749.40
Present Value of Terminal Value	7,215.09

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	9,254.86
Net Debt	-493.80
Equity Value	9,748.66
Shares Outstanding	51.72
Equity Value Per Share	188.51