Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)
$3.39
-0.05 (-1.45%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 21,854.31 | 26,912 | 29,245 | 41,733 | 42,645 | 50,822.01 | 60,566.93 | 72,180.40 | 86,020.70 | 102,514.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 4,180.46 | 4,679 | 4,723 | 9,179 | 6,924 | 9,239.02 | 11,010.56 | 13,121.79 | 15,637.84 | 18,636.34 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -4,911.70 | -5,036 | -3,610 | -5,142 | -6,214 | -8,174.64 | -9,742.10 | -11,610.11 | -13,836.30 | -16,489.35 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -731.24 | -357 | 1,113 | 4,037 | 710 | 1,064.37 | 1,268.46 | 1,511.69 | 1,801.55 | 2,146.99 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 3.39 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.843 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 616 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.57 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 22.27% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.596 |
| Total Debt | 3,205 |
| Total Equity | 2,088.24 |
| Total Capital | 5,293.24 |
| Debt Weighting | 60.55 |
| Equity Weighting | 39.45 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 21,854.31 | 26,912 | 29,245 | 41,733 | 42,645 | 50,822.01 | 60,566.93 | 72,180.40 | 86,020.70 | 102,514.83 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 4,180.46 | 4,679 | 4,723 | 9,179 | 6,924 | 9,239.02 | 11,010.56 | 13,121.79 | 15,637.84 | 18,636.34 |
| Capital Expenditure | -4,911.70 | -5,036 | -3,610 | -5,142 | -6,214 | -8,174.64 | -9,742.10 | -11,610.11 | -13,836.30 | -16,489.35 |
| Free Cash Flow | -731.24 | -357 | 1,113 | 4,037 | 710 | 1,064.37 | 1,268.46 | 1,511.69 | 1,801.55 | 2,146.99 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 913.78 | 934.92 | 956.55 | 978.68 | 1,001.32 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 4,785.25 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 16.48 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,189.93 |
| Terminal Value | 15,123.79 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,053.49 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 11,838.74 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 757 |
| Equity Value | 11,081.74 |
| Shares Outstanding | 616 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 17.99 |