Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Mattel, Inc. (MAT)

$20.535

-0.69 (-3.27%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -5.16 | 20.535 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,881.95	4,510.85	4,504.57	4,583.66	5,457.70	5,636.22	5,820.57	6,010.96	6,207.57	6,410.62
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	-27.61	-27.32	180.98	288.50	485	203.21	209.86	216.72	223.81	231.13
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-297.16	-152.41	-116.35	-121.60	-77.13	-181.65	-187.60	-193.73	-200.07	-206.61
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	-324.77	-179.73	64.63	166.90	407.87	21.56	22.26	22.99	23.74	24.52

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 20.535
Beta	1.147
Diluted Shares Outstanding	349.10
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-91.80
After-tax Cost of Debt	8.89%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	9.046
Total Debt	2,854.60
Total Equity	7,168.77
Total Capital	10,023.37
Debt Weighting	28.48
Equity Weighting	71.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	4,881.95	4,510.85	4,504.57	4,583.66	5,457.70	5,636.22	5,820.57	6,010.96	6,207.57	6,410.62
Operating Cash Flow	-27.61	-27.32	180.98	288.50	485	203.21	209.86	216.72	223.81	231.13
Capital Expenditure	-297.16	-152.41	-116.35	-121.60	-77.13	-181.65	-187.60	-193.73	-200.07	-206.61
Free Cash Flow	-324.77	-179.73	64.63	166.90	407.87	21.56	22.26	22.99	23.74	24.52
WACC
PV LFCF						19.78	18.74	17.75	16.82	15.93
SUM PV LFCF										89.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	9.00
Free cash flow (t + 1)	25.01
Terminal Value	357.25
Present Value of Terminal Value	232.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	321.21
Net Debt	2,123.20
Equity Value	-1,801.99
Shares Outstanding	349.10
Equity Value Per Share	-5.16