Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation (MGY)
$19.7
-0.66 (-3.24%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 882.40 | 936.14 | 534.51 | 1,078.35 | 1,694.49 | 2,211.62 | 2,886.55 | 3,767.46 | 4,917.21 | 6,417.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 590.28 | 647.62 | 310.12 | 788.48 | 1,296.69 | 1,520.43 | 1,984.43 | 2,590.03 | 3,380.45 | 4,412.10 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -338.93 | -435.03 | -222.21 | -236.43 | -427.15 | -767.82 | -1,002.14 | -1,307.97 | -1,707.13 | -2,228.11 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 251.35 | 212.58 | 87.91 | 552.05 | 869.54 | 752.61 | 982.29 | 1,282.06 | 1,673.32 | 2,183.98 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 19.7 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.154 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 187.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.63 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.96% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 13.860 |
| Total Debt | 390.38 |
| Total Equity | 3,701.65 |
| Total Capital | 4,092.03 |
| Debt Weighting | 9.54 |
| Equity Weighting | 90.46 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 882.40 | 936.14 | 534.51 | 1,078.35 | 1,694.49 | 2,211.62 | 2,886.55 | 3,767.46 | 4,917.21 | 6,417.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 590.28 | 647.62 | 310.12 | 788.48 | 1,296.69 | 1,520.43 | 1,984.43 | 2,590.03 | 3,380.45 | 4,412.10 |
| Capital Expenditure | -338.93 | -435.03 | -222.21 | -236.43 | -427.15 | -767.82 | -1,002.14 | -1,307.97 | -1,707.13 | -2,228.11 |
| Free Cash Flow | 251.35 | 212.58 | 87.91 | 552.05 | 869.54 | 752.61 | 982.29 | 1,282.06 | 1,673.32 | 2,183.98 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 665.38 | 767.78 | 885.94 | 1,022.29 | 1,179.62 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 4,521.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 13.11 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,227.66 |
| Terminal Value | 20,050.95 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 10,830.04 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 15,351.05 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -285.06 |
| Equity Value | 15,636.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | 187.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 83.21 |