Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
$99.48
+0.46 (+0.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 74,733 | 96,504 | 123,949 | 69,779 | 119,983 | 145,723.74 | 176,986.81 | 214,956.96 | 261,073.09 | 317,082.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 6,609 | 6,158 | 9,441 | 2,419 | 4,360 | 8,726.50 | 10,598.65 | 12,872.45 | 15,634.06 | 18,988.13 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,732 | -3,578 | -5,374 | -2,787 | -1,464 | -4,929.30 | -5,986.81 | -7,271.21 | -8,831.14 | -10,725.75 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3,877 | 2,580 | 4,067 | -368 | 2,896 | 3,797.20 | 4,611.83 | 5,601.24 | 6,802.91 | 8,262.39 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 99.48 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.767 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 649 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -245.69 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.71% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.096 |
| Total Debt | 26,904 |
| Total Equity | 64,562.52 |
| Total Capital | 91,466.52 |
| Debt Weighting | 29.41 |
| Equity Weighting | 70.59 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 74,733 | 96,504 | 123,949 | 69,779 | 119,983 | 145,723.74 | 176,986.81 | 214,956.96 | 261,073.09 | 317,082.82 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 6,609 | 6,158 | 9,441 | 2,419 | 4,360 | 8,726.50 | 10,598.65 | 12,872.45 | 15,634.06 | 18,988.13 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2,732 | -3,578 | -5,374 | -2,787 | -1,464 | -4,929.30 | -5,986.81 | -7,271.21 | -8,831.14 | -10,725.75 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,877 | 2,580 | 4,067 | -368 | 2,896 | 3,797.20 | 4,611.83 | 5,601.24 | 6,802.91 | 8,262.39 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 2,236.92 | 2,487.47 | 2,766.09 | 3,075.92 | 3,420.45 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 21,738.58 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.22 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 8,427.63 |
| Terminal Value | 116,726.22 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 75,103.05 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 96,841.63 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 21,613 |
| Equity Value | 75,228.63 |
| Shares Outstanding | 649 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 115.91 |