Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
$112.17
-0.26 (-0.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 96,504 | 123,949 | 69,779 | 119,983 | 177,453 | 223,848.70 | 282,374.71 | 356,202.55 | 449,332.93 | 566,812.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 6,158 | 9,441 | 2,419 | 4,360 | 16,361 | 13,573.44 | 17,122.26 | 21,598.94 | 27,246.06 | 34,369.63 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -3,578 | -5,374 | -2,787 | -1,464 | -2,420 | -6,545.88 | -8,257.33 | -10,416.24 | -13,139.60 | -16,574.99 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 2,580 | 4,067 | -368 | 2,896 | 13,941 | 7,027.56 | 8,864.94 | 11,182.70 | 14,106.46 | 17,794.64 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 112.17 |
---|---|
Beta | 1.628 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 649 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 29.08 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.04% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.431 |
Total Debt | 27,909 |
Total Equity | 72,798.33 |
Total Capital | 100,707.33 |
Debt Weighting | 27.71 |
Equity Weighting | 72.29 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 96,504 | 123,949 | 69,779 | 119,983 | 177,453 | 223,848.70 | 282,374.71 | 356,202.55 | 449,332.93 | 566,812.57 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 6,158 | 9,441 | 2,419 | 4,360 | 16,361 | 13,573.44 | 17,122.26 | 21,598.94 | 27,246.06 | 34,369.63 |
Capital Expenditure | -3,578 | -5,374 | -2,787 | -1,464 | -2,420 | -6,545.88 | -8,257.33 | -10,416.24 | -13,139.60 | -16,574.99 |
Free Cash Flow | 2,580 | 4,067 | -368 | 2,896 | 13,941 | 7,027.56 | 8,864.94 | 11,182.70 | 14,106.46 | 17,794.64 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 6,441.39 | 7,447.77 | 8,611.38 | 9,956.78 | 11,512.39 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 43,969.71 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 9.10 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 18,150.54 |
Terminal Value | 255,641.37 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 165,389.29 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 209,359 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 19,284 |
Equity Value | 190,075 |
Shares Outstanding | 649 |
Equity Value Per Share | 292.87 |