Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

$112.17

-0.26 (-0.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 292.87 | 112.17 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 96,504123,94969,779119,983177,453223,848.70282,374.71356,202.55449,332.93566,812.57
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 6,1589,4412,4194,36016,36113,573.4417,122.2621,598.9427,246.0634,369.63
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,578-5,374-2,787-1,464-2,420-6,545.88-8,257.33-10,416.24-13,139.60-16,574.99
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 2,5804,067-3682,89613,9417,027.568,864.9411,182.7014,106.4617,794.64

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 112.17
Beta 1.628
Diluted Shares Outstanding 649
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 29.08
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.04%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.431
Total Debt 27,909
Total Equity 72,798.33
Total Capital 100,707.33
Debt Weighting 27.71
Equity Weighting 72.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 96,504123,94969,779119,983177,453223,848.70282,374.71356,202.55449,332.93566,812.57
Operating Cash Flow 6,1589,4412,4194,36016,36113,573.4417,122.2621,598.9427,246.0634,369.63
Capital Expenditure -3,578-5,374-2,787-1,464-2,420-6,545.88-8,257.33-10,416.24-13,139.60-16,574.99
Free Cash Flow 2,5804,067-3682,89613,9417,027.568,864.9411,182.7014,106.4617,794.64
WACC
PV LFCF 6,441.397,447.778,611.389,956.7811,512.39
SUM PV LFCF 43,969.71

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.10
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,150.54
Terminal Value 255,641.37
Present Value of Terminal Value 165,389.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 209,359
Net Debt 19,284
Equity Value 190,075
Shares Outstanding 649
Equity Value Per Share 292.87