Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

$99.48

+0.46 (+0.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 115.91 | 99.48 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 74,73396,504123,94969,779119,983145,723.74176,986.81214,956.96261,073.09317,082.82
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 6,6096,1589,4412,4194,3608,726.5010,598.6512,872.4515,634.0618,988.13
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,732-3,578-5,374-2,787-1,464-4,929.30-5,986.81-7,271.21-8,831.14-10,725.75
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 3,8772,5804,067-3682,8963,797.204,611.835,601.246,802.918,262.39

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 99.48
Beta 1.767
Diluted Shares Outstanding 649
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -245.69
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.71%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.096
Total Debt 26,904
Total Equity 64,562.52
Total Capital 91,466.52
Debt Weighting 29.41
Equity Weighting 70.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 74,73396,504123,94969,779119,983145,723.74176,986.81214,956.96261,073.09317,082.82
Operating Cash Flow 6,6096,1589,4412,4194,3608,726.5010,598.6512,872.4515,634.0618,988.13
Capital Expenditure -2,732-3,578-5,374-2,787-1,464-4,929.30-5,986.81-7,271.21-8,831.14-10,725.75
Free Cash Flow 3,8772,5804,067-3682,8963,797.204,611.835,601.246,802.918,262.39
WACC
PV LFCF 2,236.922,487.472,766.093,075.923,420.45
SUM PV LFCF 21,738.58

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.22
Free cash flow (t + 1) 8,427.63
Terminal Value 116,726.22
Present Value of Terminal Value 75,103.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 96,841.63
Net Debt 21,613
Equity Value 75,228.63
Shares Outstanding 649
Equity Value Per Share 115.91