Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
$112.17
-0.26 (-0.23%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 96,504 | 123,949 | 69,779 | 119,983 | 177,453 | 223,848.70 | 282,374.71 | 356,202.55 | 449,332.93 | 566,812.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 6,158 | 9,441 | 2,419 | 4,360 | 16,361 | 13,573.44 | 17,122.26 | 21,598.94 | 27,246.06 | 34,369.63 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,578 | -5,374 | -2,787 | -1,464 | -2,420 | -6,545.88 | -8,257.33 | -10,416.24 | -13,139.60 | -16,574.99 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 2,580 | 4,067 | -368 | 2,896 | 13,941 | 7,027.56 | 8,864.94 | 11,182.70 | 14,106.46 | 17,794.64 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 112.17 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.628 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 649 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 29.08 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.04% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.431 |
| Total Debt | 27,909 |
| Total Equity | 72,798.33 |
| Total Capital | 100,707.33 |
| Debt Weighting | 27.71 |
| Equity Weighting | 72.29 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 96,504 | 123,949 | 69,779 | 119,983 | 177,453 | 223,848.70 | 282,374.71 | 356,202.55 | 449,332.93 | 566,812.57 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 6,158 | 9,441 | 2,419 | 4,360 | 16,361 | 13,573.44 | 17,122.26 | 21,598.94 | 27,246.06 | 34,369.63 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3,578 | -5,374 | -2,787 | -1,464 | -2,420 | -6,545.88 | -8,257.33 | -10,416.24 | -13,139.60 | -16,574.99 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,580 | 4,067 | -368 | 2,896 | 13,941 | 7,027.56 | 8,864.94 | 11,182.70 | 14,106.46 | 17,794.64 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 6,441.39 | 7,447.77 | 8,611.38 | 9,956.78 | 11,512.39 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 43,969.71 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.10 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 18,150.54 |
| Terminal Value | 255,641.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 165,389.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 209,359 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 19,284 |
| Equity Value | 190,075 |
| Shares Outstanding | 649 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 292.87 |