Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)
$27.39
+1.10 (+4.18%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,902 | 5,063 | 3,097 | 5,601 | 7,540 | 8,716.71 | 10,077.06 | 11,649.71 | 13,467.80 | 15,569.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,234 | 2,749 | 1,473 | 3,239 | 5,428 | 4,994.18 | 5,773.58 | 6,674.62 | 7,716.28 | 8,920.50 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,753 | -2,550 | -1,343 | -1,046 | -1,450 | -3,108.05 | -3,593.10 | -4,153.85 | -4,802.11 | -5,551.54 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 481 | 199 | 130 | 2,193 | 3,978 | 1,886.13 | 2,180.48 | 2,520.77 | 2,914.17 | 3,368.96 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 27.39 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.376 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 687 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 4.42 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.66% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.840 |
| Total Debt | 5,923 |
| Total Equity | 18,816.93 |
| Total Capital | 24,739.93 |
| Debt Weighting | 23.94 |
| Equity Weighting | 76.06 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,902 | 5,063 | 3,097 | 5,601 | 7,540 | 8,716.71 | 10,077.06 | 11,649.71 | 13,467.80 | 15,569.62 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,234 | 2,749 | 1,473 | 3,239 | 5,428 | 4,994.18 | 5,773.58 | 6,674.62 | 7,716.28 | 8,920.50 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2,753 | -2,550 | -1,343 | -1,046 | -1,450 | -3,108.05 | -3,593.10 | -4,153.85 | -4,802.11 | -5,551.54 |
| Free Cash Flow | 481 | 199 | 130 | 2,193 | 3,978 | 1,886.13 | 2,180.48 | 2,520.77 | 2,914.17 | 3,368.96 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,670.32 | 1,710.06 | 1,750.74 | 1,792.38 | 1,835.02 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 8,758.52 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 12.92 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,436.34 |
| Terminal Value | 31,468.31 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 17,140.33 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 25,898.85 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,589 |
| Equity Value | 20,309.85 |
| Shares Outstanding | 687 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 29.56 |