Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)
$22.28
-0.68 (-2.96%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,902 | 5,063 | 3,097 | 5,601 | 8,036 | 9,468.03 | 11,155.24 | 13,143.12 | 15,485.25 | 18,244.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,234 | 2,749 | 1,473 | 3,239 | 5,428 | 5,340.50 | 6,292.18 | 7,413.46 | 8,734.55 | 10,291.05 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,753 | -2,550 | -1,343 | -1,046 | -1,450 | -3,353.46 | -3,951.06 | -4,655.14 | -5,484.69 | -6,462.07 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 481 | 199 | 130 | 2,193 | 3,978 | 1,987.03 | 2,341.12 | 2,758.32 | 3,249.85 | 3,828.98 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 22.28 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.384 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 687 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 4.42 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.78% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.754 |
| Total Debt | 5,923 |
| Total Equity | 15,306.36 |
| Total Capital | 21,229.36 |
| Debt Weighting | 27.90 |
| Equity Weighting | 72.10 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,902 | 5,063 | 3,097 | 5,601 | 8,036 | 9,468.03 | 11,155.24 | 13,143.12 | 15,485.25 | 18,244.74 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,234 | 2,749 | 1,473 | 3,239 | 5,428 | 5,340.50 | 6,292.18 | 7,413.46 | 8,734.55 | 10,291.05 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2,753 | -2,550 | -1,343 | -1,046 | -1,450 | -3,353.46 | -3,951.06 | -4,655.14 | -5,484.69 | -6,462.07 |
| Free Cash Flow | 481 | 199 | 130 | 2,193 | 3,978 | 1,987.03 | 2,341.12 | 2,758.32 | 3,249.85 | 3,828.98 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,774.61 | 1,867.33 | 1,964.89 | 2,067.55 | 2,175.58 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 9,849.97 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.97 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,905.56 |
| Terminal Value | 39,173.12 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 22,257.67 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 32,107.64 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 5,589 |
| Equity Value | 26,518.64 |
| Shares Outstanding | 687 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 38.60 |