Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)
$27.26
+0.38 (+1.41%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,373 | 5,902 | 5,063 | 3,097 | 5,601 | 6,479.95 | 7,496.82 | 8,673.28 | 10,034.35 | 11,609.01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,129 | 3,234 | 2,749 | 1,473 | 3,239 | 3,410.62 | 3,945.84 | 4,565.04 | 5,281.42 | 6,110.22 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,974 | -2,753 | -2,550 | -1,343 | -1,046 | -2,646.29 | -3,061.57 | -3,542.01 | -4,097.85 | -4,740.91 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 155 | 481 | 199 | 130 | 2,193 | 764.32 | 884.27 | 1,023.03 | 1,183.57 | 1,369.31 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 27.26 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.767 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 788 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 5.78 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.03% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 15.846 |
| Total Debt | 4,014 |
| Total Equity | 21,480.88 |
| Total Capital | 25,494.88 |
| Debt Weighting | 15.74 |
| Equity Weighting | 84.26 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 4,373 | 5,902 | 5,063 | 3,097 | 5,601 | 6,479.95 | 7,496.82 | 8,673.28 | 10,034.35 | 11,609.01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,129 | 3,234 | 2,749 | 1,473 | 3,239 | 3,410.62 | 3,945.84 | 4,565.04 | 5,281.42 | 6,110.22 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,974 | -2,753 | -2,550 | -1,343 | -1,046 | -2,646.29 | -3,061.57 | -3,542.01 | -4,097.85 | -4,740.91 |
| Free Cash Flow | 155 | 481 | 199 | 130 | 2,193 | 764.32 | 884.27 | 1,023.03 | 1,183.57 | 1,369.31 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 668.70 | 676.85 | 685.09 | 693.44 | 701.89 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 3,425.97 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 14.30 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,396.69 |
| Terminal Value | 11,355.23 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 5,820.56 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 9,246.53 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,434 |
| Equity Value | 5,812.53 |
| Shares Outstanding | 788 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 7.38 |