Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Marathon Oil Corporation (MRO)
$24.09
-0.22 (-0.91%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,902 | 5,063 | 3,097 | 5,601 | 8,036 | 9,468.03 | 11,155.24 | 13,143.12 | 15,485.25 | 18,244.74 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 3,234 | 2,749 | 1,473 | 3,239 | 5,428 | 5,340.50 | 6,292.18 | 7,413.46 | 8,734.55 | 10,291.05 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -2,753 | -2,550 | -1,343 | -1,046 | -1,450 | -3,353.46 | -3,951.06 | -4,655.14 | -5,484.69 | -6,462.07 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 481 | 199 | 130 | 2,193 | 3,978 | 1,987.03 | 2,341.12 | 2,758.32 | 3,249.85 | 3,828.98 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 24.09 |
---|---|
Beta | 2.400 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 687 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 4.42 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.78% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 15.065 |
Total Debt | 5,923 |
Total Equity | 16,549.83 |
Total Capital | 22,472.83 |
Debt Weighting | 26.36 |
Equity Weighting | 73.64 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 5,902 | 5,063 | 3,097 | 5,601 | 8,036 | 9,468.03 | 11,155.24 | 13,143.12 | 15,485.25 | 18,244.74 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 3,234 | 2,749 | 1,473 | 3,239 | 5,428 | 5,340.50 | 6,292.18 | 7,413.46 | 8,734.55 | 10,291.05 |
Capital Expenditure | -2,753 | -2,550 | -1,343 | -1,046 | -1,450 | -3,353.46 | -3,951.06 | -4,655.14 | -5,484.69 | -6,462.07 |
Free Cash Flow | 481 | 199 | 130 | 2,193 | 3,978 | 1,987.03 | 2,341.12 | 2,758.32 | 3,249.85 | 3,828.98 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 1,768.61 | 1,854.72 | 1,945.02 | 2,039.72 | 2,139.03 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 9,747.11 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 12.35 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,905.56 |
Terminal Value | 37,734.88 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 21,080.34 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 30,827.45 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 5,589 |
Equity Value | 25,238.45 |
Shares Outstanding | 687 |
Equity Value Per Share | 36.74 |