Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)
$122.72
-0.31 (-0.25%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,543.92 | 3,677.84 | 4,506.31 | 5,147.33 | 6,298.15 | 7,288.34 | 8,434.21 | 9,760.22 | 11,294.72 | 13,070.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 262.20 | 346.82 | 530.36 | -152.09 | 405.27 | 467.59 | 541.10 | 626.17 | 724.62 | 838.54 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -33.41 | -24.38 | -19.93 | -25.66 | -26.97 | -43.37 | -50.18 | -58.07 | -67.20 | -77.77 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 228.79 | 322.44 | 510.43 | -177.76 | 378.30 | 424.22 | 490.92 | 568.10 | 657.42 | 760.77 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 122.72 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.639 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 37.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.05 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 0.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.173 |
| Total Debt | 1,150.65 |
| Total Equity | 4,553.03 |
| Total Capital | 5,703.68 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.17 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.83 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 3,543.92 | 3,677.84 | 4,506.31 | 5,147.33 | 6,298.15 | 7,288.34 | 8,434.21 | 9,760.22 | 11,294.72 | 13,070.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 262.20 | 346.82 | 530.36 | -152.09 | 405.27 | 467.59 | 541.10 | 626.17 | 724.62 | 838.54 |
| Capital Expenditure | -33.41 | -24.38 | -19.93 | -25.66 | -26.97 | -43.37 | -50.18 | -58.07 | -67.20 | -77.77 |
| Free Cash Flow | 228.79 | 322.44 | 510.43 | -177.76 | 378.30 | 424.22 | 490.92 | 568.10 | 657.42 | 760.77 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 386.64 | 407.79 | 430.10 | 453.62 | 478.44 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 2,156.59 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.72 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 775.99 |
| Terminal Value | 10,051.67 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 6,321.34 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 8,477.93 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 289.09 |
| Equity Value | 8,188.85 |
| Shares Outstanding | 37.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 220.72 |