Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH)

$76.4

-0.63 (-0.82%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 124.65 | 76.4 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,254.833,543.923,677.844,506.315,147.335,783.176,497.567,300.198,201.979,215.15
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow -87.13262.20346.82530.36-152.09265.63298.45335.31376.73423.27
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -18.10-33.41-24.38-19.93-25.66-35.89-40.32-45.30-50.90-57.19
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -105.23228.79322.44510.43-177.76229.75258.13290.01325.84366.09

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 76.4
Beta 1.633
Diluted Shares Outstanding 37.72
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.77
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.468
Total Debt 1,186.21
Total Equity 2,881.66
Total Capital 4,067.86
Debt Weighting 29.16
Equity Weighting 70.84
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 3,254.833,543.923,677.844,506.315,147.335,783.176,497.567,300.198,201.979,215.15
Operating Cash Flow -87.13262.20346.82530.36-152.09265.63298.45335.31376.73423.27
Capital Expenditure -18.10-33.41-24.38-19.93-25.66-35.89-40.32-45.30-50.90-57.19
Free Cash Flow -105.23228.79322.44510.43-177.76229.75258.13290.01325.84366.09
WACC
PV LFCF 212.47220.77229.39238.35247.66
SUM PV LFCF 1,148.64

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 373.41
Terminal Value 6,091.49
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,120.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,269.54
Net Debt 567.87
Equity Value 4,701.67
Shares Outstanding 37.72
Equity Value Per Share 124.65