Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Mechel PAO (MTL)

$2.25

0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7,960.87 | 2.25 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 299,113312,574296,567265,454402,074442,638.01487,294.40536,456.04590,577.44650,158.99
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 63,28268,11857,65837,94973,53884,080.4492,563.05101,901.46112,181.98123,499.68
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,231-5,622-6,282-4,826-6,208-8,583.94-9,449.95-10,403.33-11,452.89-12,608.33
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 56,05162,49651,37633,12367,33075,496.4983,113.1091,498.13100,729.09110,891.34

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.25
Beta 1.431
Diluted Shares Outstanding 206.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 7.17%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.557
Total Debt 294,894
Total Equity 464.16
Total Capital 295,358.16
Debt Weighting 99.84
Equity Weighting 0.16
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 299,113312,574296,567265,454402,074442,638.01487,294.40536,456.04590,577.44650,158.99
Operating Cash Flow 63,28268,11857,65837,94973,53884,080.4492,563.05101,901.46112,181.98123,499.68
Capital Expenditure -7,231-5,622-6,282-4,826-6,208-8,583.94-9,449.95-10,403.33-11,452.89-12,608.33
Free Cash Flow 56,05162,49651,37633,12367,33075,496.4983,113.1091,498.13100,729.09110,891.34
WACC
PV LFCF 70,445.5572,364.0874,334.8676,359.3178,438.90
SUM PV LFCF 371,942.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.17
Free cash flow (t + 1) 113,109.17
Terminal Value 2,187,798.28
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,547,537.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,919,479.99
Net Debt 277,193
Equity Value 1,642,286.99
Shares Outstanding 206.29
Equity Value Per Share 7,960.87