Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Mechel PAO (MTL)
$2.25
0.00 (0.00%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 299,113 | 312,574 | 296,567 | 265,454 | 402,074 | 442,638.01 | 487,294.40 | 536,456.04 | 590,577.44 | 650,158.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 63,282 | 68,118 | 57,658 | 37,949 | 73,538 | 84,080.44 | 92,563.05 | 101,901.46 | 112,181.98 | 123,499.68 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7,231 | -5,622 | -6,282 | -4,826 | -6,208 | -8,583.94 | -9,449.95 | -10,403.33 | -11,452.89 | -12,608.33 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 56,051 | 62,496 | 51,376 | 33,123 | 67,330 | 75,496.49 | 83,113.10 | 91,498.13 | 100,729.09 | 110,891.34 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 2.25 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.302 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 825.18 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 7.31 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 6.77% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.883 |
| Total Debt | 294,894 |
| Total Equity | 1,856.65 |
| Total Capital | 296,750.65 |
| Debt Weighting | 99.37 |
| Equity Weighting | 0.63 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 299,113 | 312,574 | 296,567 | 265,454 | 402,074 | 442,638.01 | 487,294.40 | 536,456.04 | 590,577.44 | 650,158.99 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 63,282 | 68,118 | 57,658 | 37,949 | 73,538 | 84,080.44 | 92,563.05 | 101,901.46 | 112,181.98 | 123,499.68 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7,231 | -5,622 | -6,282 | -4,826 | -6,208 | -8,583.94 | -9,449.95 | -10,403.33 | -11,452.89 | -12,608.33 |
| Free Cash Flow | 56,051 | 62,496 | 51,376 | 33,123 | 67,330 | 75,496.49 | 83,113.10 | 91,498.13 | 100,729.09 | 110,891.34 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 70,696.22 | 72,879.99 | 75,131.22 | 77,451.99 | 79,844.45 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 376,003.87 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.79 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 113,109.17 |
| Terminal Value | 2,361,360.56 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,700,236.65 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 2,076,240.52 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 277,193 |
| Equity Value | 1,799,047.52 |
| Shares Outstanding | 825.18 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 2,180.19 |