Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA)
$247.49
-3.78 (-1.50%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 14,362.30 | 14,034.60 | 11,264.30 | 17,360.50 | 23,446.10 | 27,382.30 | 31,979.32 | 37,348.11 | 43,618.22 | 50,940.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 398.70 | 313.30 | 563.70 | 737.40 | 44.80 | 791.42 | 924.29 | 1,079.46 | 1,260.68 | 1,472.33 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -204.30 | -204.80 | -230.70 | -274.70 | -381.71 | -445.79 | -520.63 | -608.04 | -710.12 | -829.33 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.40 | 108.50 | 333 | 462.70 | -336.91 | 345.63 | 403.65 | 471.42 | 550.56 | 642.99 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 247.49 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.816 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 23.95 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.86 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.89% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 7.458 |
| Total Debt | 2,251.10 |
| Total Equity | 5,927.39 |
| Total Capital | 8,178.49 |
| Debt Weighting | 27.52 |
| Equity Weighting | 72.48 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 14,362.30 | 14,034.60 | 11,264.30 | 17,360.50 | 23,446.10 | 27,382.30 | 31,979.32 | 37,348.11 | 43,618.22 | 50,940.98 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 398.70 | 313.30 | 563.70 | 737.40 | 44.80 | 791.42 | 924.29 | 1,079.46 | 1,260.68 | 1,472.33 |
| Capital Expenditure | -204.30 | -204.80 | -230.70 | -274.70 | -381.71 | -445.79 | -520.63 | -608.04 | -710.12 | -829.33 |
| Free Cash Flow | 194.40 | 108.50 | 333 | 462.70 | -336.91 | 345.63 | 403.65 | 471.42 | 550.56 | 642.99 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 240.91 | 264.93 | 291.35 | 320.40 | 352.34 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 1,985.73 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.20 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 655.85 |
| Terminal Value | 15,615.58 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 11,559.40 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 13,545.13 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 2,190.60 |
| Equity Value | 11,354.53 |
| Shares Outstanding | 23.95 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 474.09 |