Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. (NBIX)
$89.53
-0.58 (-0.64%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 451.24 | 788.09 | 1,045.90 | 1,133.50 | 1,488.70 | 2,036.08 | 2,784.72 | 3,808.62 | 5,209.01 | 7,124.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 101.36 | 152.05 | 228.50 | 256.50 | 339.40 | 444 | 607.25 | 830.52 | 1,135.90 | 1,553.55 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -24.81 | -14.75 | -10.90 | -23.40 | -16.50 | -47.18 | -64.52 | -88.25 | -120.69 | -165.07 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 76.55 | 137.31 | 217.60 | 233.10 | 322.90 | 396.82 | 542.73 | 742.28 | 1,015.21 | 1,388.49 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 89.53 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.488 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 98.90 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 27.77 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.95% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.939 |
| Total Debt | 262.90 |
| Total Equity | 8,854.52 |
| Total Capital | 9,117.42 |
| Debt Weighting | 2.88 |
| Equity Weighting | 97.12 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 451.24 | 788.09 | 1,045.90 | 1,133.50 | 1,488.70 | 2,036.08 | 2,784.72 | 3,808.62 | 5,209.01 | 7,124.30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 101.36 | 152.05 | 228.50 | 256.50 | 339.40 | 444 | 607.25 | 830.52 | 1,135.90 | 1,553.55 |
| Capital Expenditure | -24.81 | -14.75 | -10.90 | -23.40 | -16.50 | -47.18 | -64.52 | -88.25 | -120.69 | -165.07 |
| Free Cash Flow | 76.55 | 137.31 | 217.60 | 233.10 | 322.90 | 396.82 | 542.73 | 742.28 | 1,015.21 | 1,388.49 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 375 | 484.67 | 626.42 | 809.62 | 1,046.41 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 3,342.12 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.82 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,416.26 |
| Terminal Value | 37,074.76 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 27,940.84 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 31,282.96 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 262.90 |
| Equity Value | 31,020.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 98.90 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 313.65 |