Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
NIO Inc. (NIO)
$8.45
-0.37 (-4.20%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 792.19 | 1,251.98 | 2,601.27 | 5,781.83 | 7,882.97 | 14,276.51 | 25,855.59 | 46,825.96 | 84,804.52 | 153,585.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -7,911.77 | -8,721.71 | 1,950.89 | 1,966.39 | -3,866.01 | -46,695.33 | -84,567.93 | -153,157.40 | -277,376.88 | -502,345.52 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,643.96 | -1,706.79 | -1,127.69 | -4,078.76 | -6,972.85 | -19,199.97 | -34,772.25 | -62,974.55 | -114,050.54 | -206,552.10 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -10,555.73 | -10,428.49 | 823.21 | -2,112.38 | -10,838.86 | -65,895.29 | -119,340.18 | -216,131.94 | -391,427.41 | -708,897.62 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 8.45 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.073 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,637 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.38 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.41% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.265 |
| Total Debt | 3,792.96 |
| Total Equity | 13,832.64 |
| Total Capital | 17,625.60 |
| Debt Weighting | 21.52 |
| Equity Weighting | 78.48 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 792.19 | 1,251.98 | 2,601.27 | 5,781.83 | 7,882.97 | 14,276.51 | 25,855.59 | 46,825.96 | 84,804.52 | 153,585.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -7,911.77 | -8,721.71 | 1,950.89 | 1,966.39 | -3,866.01 | -46,695.33 | -84,567.93 | -153,157.40 | -277,376.88 | -502,345.52 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2,643.96 | -1,706.79 | -1,127.69 | -4,078.76 | -6,972.85 | -19,199.97 | -34,772.25 | -62,974.55 | -114,050.54 | -206,552.10 |
| Free Cash Flow | -10,555.73 | -10,428.49 | 823.21 | -2,112.38 | -10,838.86 | -65,895.29 | -119,340.18 | -216,131.94 | -391,427.41 | -708,897.62 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -59,098.92 | -95,992.42 | -155,917.32 | -253,251.35 | -411,347.80 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -975,607.81 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 11.50 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -723,075.57 |
| Terminal Value | -7,611,321.80 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -4,416,576.39 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -5,392,184.20 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 610.95 |
| Equity Value | -5,392,795.15 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,637 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -3,294.32 |