Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Norfolk Southern Corporation (NSC)
$218.16
+5.96 (+2.81%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,458 | 11,296 | 9,789 | 11,142 | 12,745 | 13,173.67 | 13,616.76 | 14,074.75 | 14,548.15 | 15,037.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,726 | 3,892 | 3,637 | 4,255 | 4,222 | 4,622.46 | 4,777.93 | 4,938.63 | 5,104.74 | 5,276.43 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,951 | -2,019 | -1,494 | -1,470 | -1,948 | -2,071.98 | -2,141.66 | -2,213.70 | -2,288.16 | -2,365.12 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,775 | 1,873 | 2,143 | 2,785 | 2,274 | 2,550.48 | 2,636.26 | 2,724.93 | 2,816.58 | 2,911.32 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 218.16 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.289 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 248.10 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.82 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.52% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.866 |
| Total Debt | 15,592 |
| Total Equity | 54,125.50 |
| Total Capital | 69,717.50 |
| Debt Weighting | 22.36 |
| Equity Weighting | 77.64 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,458 | 11,296 | 9,789 | 11,142 | 12,745 | 13,173.67 | 13,616.76 | 14,074.75 | 14,548.15 | 15,037.47 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,726 | 3,892 | 3,637 | 4,255 | 4,222 | 4,622.46 | 4,777.93 | 4,938.63 | 5,104.74 | 5,276.43 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,951 | -2,019 | -1,494 | -1,470 | -1,948 | -2,071.98 | -2,141.66 | -2,213.70 | -2,288.16 | -2,365.12 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,775 | 1,873 | 2,143 | 2,785 | 2,274 | 2,550.48 | 2,636.26 | 2,724.93 | 2,816.58 | 2,911.32 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 2,351.76 | 2,241.45 | 2,136.32 | 2,036.13 | 1,940.63 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 10,706.29 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.45 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,969.55 |
| Terminal Value | 46,039.46 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 30,688.98 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 41,395.27 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 15,136 |
| Equity Value | 26,259.27 |
| Shares Outstanding | 248.10 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 105.84 |