Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR)

$101.36

+2.41 (+2.44%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 1,927.55 | 101.36 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,54719,63620,02320,90827,71253,399.54102,898.04198,279382,072.99736,234.14
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 1,2252,0523,6653,3233,8869,143.2017,618.4633,949.8265,419.48126,059.82
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -652-1,405-1,891-1,549-1,783-4,782.59-9,215.79-17,758.33-34,219.35-65,938.85
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 5736471,7741,7742,1034,360.618,402.6716,191.4931,200.1360,120.97

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 101.36
Beta 0.815
Diluted Shares Outstanding 582.27
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 24.35
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.27%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.724
Total Debt 10,846
Total Equity 59,018.79
Total Capital 69,864.79
Debt Weighting 15.52
Equity Weighting 84.48
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 4,54719,63620,02320,90827,71253,399.54102,898.04198,279382,072.99736,234.14
Operating Cash Flow 1,2252,0523,6653,3233,8869,143.2017,618.4633,949.8265,419.48126,059.82
Capital Expenditure -652-1,405-1,891-1,549-1,783-4,782.59-9,215.79-17,758.33-34,219.35-65,938.85
Free Cash Flow 5736471,7741,7742,1034,360.618,402.6716,191.4931,200.1360,120.97
WACC
PV LFCF 4,100.637,430.6013,464.7024,398.8744,212.26
SUM PV LFCF 93,607.06

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.34
Free cash flow (t + 1) 61,323.39
Terminal Value 1,412,981.28
Present Value of Terminal Value 1,039,089.91

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,132,696.97
Net Debt 10,347
Equity Value 1,122,349.97
Shares Outstanding 582.27
Equity Value Per Share 1,927.55