Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Novavax, Inc. (NVAX)
$7.67
+0.44 (+6.09%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 34.29 | 18.66 | 475.60 | 1,146.29 | 1,981.87 | 14,947.41 | 112,734.32 | 850,249.56 | 6,412,637.44 | 48,364,528.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | -184.83 | -136.62 | -42.54 | 322.95 | -415.94 | -38,052.74 | -286,996.23 | -2,164,544.23 | -16,325,133.30 | -123,125,216.45 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1.37 | -1.86 | -54.62 | -57.49 | -92.98 | -1,050.62 | -7,923.81 | -59,761.92 | -450,728.25 | -3,399,421.79 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -186.20 | -138.48 | -97.16 | 265.46 | -508.92 | -39,103.35 | -294,920.04 | -2,224,306.15 | -16,775,861.55 | -126,524,638.24 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.67 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.710 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 74.40 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -0.66 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.62% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.854 |
| Total Debt | 549.78 |
| Total Equity | 570.65 |
| Total Capital | 1,120.43 |
| Debt Weighting | 49.07 |
| Equity Weighting | 50.93 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 34.29 | 18.66 | 475.60 | 1,146.29 | 1,981.87 | 14,947.41 | 112,734.32 | 850,249.56 | 6,412,637.44 | 48,364,528.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -184.83 | -136.62 | -42.54 | 322.95 | -415.94 | -38,052.74 | -286,996.23 | -2,164,544.23 | -16,325,133.30 | -123,125,216.45 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1.37 | -1.86 | -54.62 | -57.49 | -92.98 | -1,050.62 | -7,923.81 | -59,761.92 | -450,728.25 | -3,399,421.79 |
| Free Cash Flow | -186.20 | -138.48 | -97.16 | 265.46 | -508.92 | -39,103.35 | -294,920.04 | -2,224,306.15 | -16,775,861.55 | -126,524,638.24 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | -36,270.62 | -253,738.40 | -1,775,077.93 | -12,417,914.04 | -86,872,010.79 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | -101,355,011.77 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.81 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -129,055,131.01 |
| Terminal Value | -2,221,258,709.23 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,525,119,638.61 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -1,626,474,650.39 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -787.10 |
| Equity Value | -1,626,473,863.29 |
| Shares Outstanding | 74.40 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -21,861,207.84 |