Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Novartis AG (NVS)

$76.01

-1.13 (-1.46%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 138.36 | 76.01 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 50,13553,16648,67749,89852,87753,680.8454,496.9155,325.3856,166.4457,020.29
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 12,62114,27213,62513,65015,07114,586.8814,808.6315,033.7515,262.3015,494.32
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,746-3,355-2,257-2,585-2,971-2,922.77-2,967.20-3,012.31-3,058.10-3,104.59
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 9,87510,91711,36811,06512,10011,664.1111,841.4312,021.4412,204.1912,389.72

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 76.01
Beta 0.491
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,260
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 8.10
After-tax Cost of Debt 2.40%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.015
Total Debt 31,025
Total Equity 171,782.60
Total Capital 202,807.60
Debt Weighting 15.30
Equity Weighting 84.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 50,13553,16648,67749,89852,87753,680.8454,496.9155,325.3856,166.4457,020.29
Operating Cash Flow 12,62114,27213,62513,65015,07114,586.8814,808.6315,033.7515,262.3015,494.32
Capital Expenditure -2,746-3,355-2,257-2,585-2,971-2,922.77-2,967.20-3,012.31-3,058.10-3,104.59
Free Cash Flow 9,87510,91711,36811,06512,10011,664.1111,841.4312,021.4412,204.1912,389.72
WACC
PV LFCF 11,060.2210,647.0310,249.289,866.389,497.79
SUM PV LFCF 51,320.70

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.46
Free cash flow (t + 1) 12,637.52
Terminal Value 365,246.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 279,992.77

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 331,313.47
Net Debt 18,618
Equity Value 312,695.47
Shares Outstanding 2,260
Equity Value Per Share 138.36