Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Novartis AG (NVS)
$101.14
-0.95 (-0.93%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 53,166 | 48,677 | 49,898 | 52,877 | 51,828 | 51,575.51 | 51,324.25 | 51,074.22 | 50,825.40 | 50,577.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 14,272 | 13,625 | 13,650 | 15,071 | 14,236 | 14,251.39 | 14,181.96 | 14,112.87 | 14,044.12 | 13,975.70 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,355 | -2,257 | -2,585 | -2,971 | -2,671 | -2,774.76 | -2,761.24 | -2,747.79 | -2,734.40 | -2,721.08 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 10,917 | 11,368 | 11,065 | 12,100 | 11,565 | 11,476.63 | 11,420.72 | 11,365.08 | 11,309.72 | 11,254.62 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 101.14 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.462 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,197 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 16.92 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 2.48% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.617 |
| Total Debt | 27,964 |
| Total Equity | 222,204.58 |
| Total Capital | 250,168.58 |
| Debt Weighting | 11.18 |
| Equity Weighting | 88.82 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 53,166 | 48,677 | 49,898 | 52,877 | 51,828 | 51,575.51 | 51,324.25 | 51,074.22 | 50,825.40 | 50,577.80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 14,272 | 13,625 | 13,650 | 15,071 | 14,236 | 14,251.39 | 14,181.96 | 14,112.87 | 14,044.12 | 13,975.70 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3,355 | -2,257 | -2,585 | -2,971 | -2,671 | -2,774.76 | -2,761.24 | -2,747.79 | -2,734.40 | -2,721.08 |
| Free Cash Flow | 10,917 | 11,368 | 11,065 | 12,100 | 11,565 | 11,476.63 | 11,420.72 | 11,365.08 | 11,309.72 | 11,254.62 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 10,810.69 | 10,133.79 | 9,499.26 | 8,904.47 | 8,346.92 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 47,695.13 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 6.16 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 11,479.71 |
| Terminal Value | 275,954.61 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 204,660.06 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 252,355.19 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 20,447 |
| Equity Value | 231,908.19 |
| Shares Outstanding | 2,197 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 105.56 |