Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBNK)

$28.61

0.00 (0.00%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: -23.39 | 28.61 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	188.77	212.56	250.13	278.44	9.86	8.50	7.34	6.33	5.46	4.71
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	77.83	61.55	0.89	171.49	145.65	27.38	23.63	20.39	17.59	15.18
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-5.48	-11.15	-7.20	-5.02	-8.47	-1.68	-1.45	-1.25	-1.08	-0.93
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	72.34	50.40	-6.31	166.47	137.18	25.70	22.18	19.14	16.51	14.25

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 28.61
Beta	0.890
Diluted Shares Outstanding	23.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	18.36
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.01%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.773
Total Debt	1,390.99
Total Equity	672.64
Total Capital	2,063.63
Debt Weighting	67.41
Equity Weighting	32.59
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	188.77	212.56	250.13	278.44	9.86	8.50	7.34	6.33	5.46	4.71
Operating Cash Flow	77.83	61.55	0.89	171.49	145.65	27.38	23.63	20.39	17.59	15.18
Capital Expenditure	-5.48	-11.15	-7.20	-5.02	-8.47	-1.68	-1.45	-1.25	-1.08	-0.93
Free Cash Flow	72.34	50.40	-6.31	166.47	137.18	25.70	22.18	19.14	16.51	14.25
WACC
PV LFCF						24.50	20.16	16.58	13.64	11.22
SUM PV LFCF										86.11

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	4.89
Free cash flow (t + 1)	14.53
Terminal Value	502.81
Present Value of Terminal Value	396.04

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	482.14
Net Debt	1,032.02
Equity Value	-549.88
Shares Outstanding	23.51
Equity Value Per Share	-23.39