Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Origin Bancorp, Inc. (OBNK)

$38.47

-0.62 (-1.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 129.69 | 38.47 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 153.02188.77212.58246.11261.49299.41342.83392.54449.46514.63
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 60.6677.8361.550.89171.49105.25120.51137.99158180.91
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3.03-5.48-11.15-7.20-5.01-8.97-10.27-11.76-13.46-15.41
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 57.6372.3450.40-6.31166.4796.28110.25126.23144.54165.50

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.47
Beta 0.957
Diluted Shares Outstanding 23.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.04
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.02%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.323
Total Debt 414.42
Total Equity 904.45
Total Capital 1,318.87
Debt Weighting 31.42
Equity Weighting 68.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 153.02188.77212.58246.11261.49299.41342.83392.54449.46514.63
Operating Cash Flow 60.6677.8361.550.89171.49105.25120.51137.99158180.91
Capital Expenditure -3.03-5.48-11.15-7.20-5.01-8.97-10.27-11.76-13.46-15.41
Free Cash Flow 57.6372.3450.40-6.31166.4796.28110.25126.23144.54165.50
WACC
PV LFCF 89.7495.77102.21109.08116.41
SUM PV LFCF 513.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.29
Free cash flow (t + 1) 168.80
Terminal Value 3,191.02
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,244.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 2,757.78
Net Debt -291.20
Equity Value 3,048.99
Shares Outstanding 23.51
Equity Value Per Share 129.69