Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (OESX)

$1.2

-0.07 (-5.51%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 0.28 | 1.2 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	65.75	150.84	116.84	124.38	77.38	91.99	109.37	130.02	154.57	183.75
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	-5.06	20.34	1.73	-0.11	-2.29	0.78	0.92	1.10	1.31	1.55
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-0.45	-0.94	-0.95	-0.53	-0.60	-0.61	-0.73	-0.86	-1.03	-1.22
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	-5.51	19.40	0.78	-0.64	-2.89	0.17	0.20	0.24	0.28	0.33

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.2
Beta	1.970
Diluted Shares Outstanding	31.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	-109.87
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.38%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	14.100
Total Debt	10.02
Total Equity	38.04
Total Capital	48.06
Debt Weighting	20.85
Equity Weighting	79.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Actual	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected	2028 Projected
Revenue	65.75	150.84	116.84	124.38	77.38	91.99	109.37	130.02	154.57	183.75
Operating Cash Flow	-5.06	20.34	1.73	-0.11	-2.29	0.78	0.92	1.10	1.31	1.55
Capital Expenditure	-0.45	-0.94	-0.95	-0.53	-0.60	-0.61	-0.73	-0.86	-1.03	-1.22
Free Cash Flow	-5.51	19.40	0.78	-0.64	-2.89	0.17	0.20	0.24	0.28	0.33
WACC
PV LFCF						0.15	0.16	0.17	0.18	0.19
SUM PV LFCF										0.84

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.87
Free cash flow (t + 1)	0.34
Terminal Value	3.43
Present Value of Terminal Value	1.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2.80
Net Debt	-5.97
Equity Value	8.77
Shares Outstanding	31.70
Equity Value Per Share	0.28