Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. (PARR)

$24.135

+1.22 (+5.30%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 14.83 | 24.135 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,410.73	5,401.52	3,124.87	4,710.09	7,321.79	9,562.22	12,488.22	16,309.55	21,300.21	27,817.97
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	90.62	105.63	-37.21	-27.62	452.61	172.44	225.21	294.12	384.12	501.66
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-48.44	-83.92	-63.52	-29.53	-53.03	-121.59	-158.80	-207.39	-270.85	-353.72
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	42.18	21.71	-100.74	-57.15	399.58	50.85	66.41	86.73	113.27	147.93

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 24.135
Beta	2.047
Diluted Shares Outstanding	59.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	0.19
After-tax Cost of Debt	7.82%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.449
Total Debt	870.63
Total Equity	1,445.28
Total Capital	2,315.90
Debt Weighting	37.59
Equity Weighting	62.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	3,410.73	5,401.52	3,124.87	4,710.09	7,321.79	9,562.22	12,488.22	16,309.55	21,300.21	27,817.97
Operating Cash Flow	90.62	105.63	-37.21	-27.62	452.61	172.44	225.21	294.12	384.12	501.66
Capital Expenditure	-48.44	-83.92	-63.52	-29.53	-53.03	-121.59	-158.80	-207.39	-270.85	-353.72
Free Cash Flow	42.18	21.71	-100.74	-57.15	399.58	50.85	66.41	86.73	113.27	147.93
WACC
PV LFCF						41.03	48.13	56.46	66.23	77.69
SUM PV LFCF										322.34

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.33
Free cash flow (t + 1)	150.89
Terminal Value	1,617.26
Present Value of Terminal Value	945.62

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,267.97
Net Debt	379.70
Equity Value	888.27
Shares Outstanding	59.88
Equity Value Per Share	14.83