Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

$83.81

-1.09 (-1.28%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 42.14 | 83.81 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 19,456.4023,495.7025,599.7018,728.5023,522.3025,196.5626,989.9828,911.0630,968.8733,173.15
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 2,715.802,992.302,860.302,987.202,186.703,180.483,406.863,649.353,909.104,187.34
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,846.60-1,952.30-1,970.80-1,638.40-1,632.80-2,075.61-2,223.34-2,381.60-2,551.11-2,732.69
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 869.201,040889.501,348.80553.901,104.871,183.511,267.751,357.991,454.65

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 83.81
Beta 0.903
Diluted Shares Outstanding 347.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.13
After-tax Cost of Debt 8.36%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.957
Total Debt 10,431.80
Total Equity 29,115.59
Total Capital 39,547.39
Debt Weighting 26.38
Equity Weighting 73.62
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 19,456.4023,495.7025,599.7018,728.5023,522.3025,196.5626,989.9828,911.0630,968.8733,173.15
Operating Cash Flow 2,715.802,992.302,860.302,987.202,186.703,180.483,406.863,649.353,909.104,187.34
Capital Expenditure -1,846.60-1,952.30-1,970.80-1,638.40-1,632.80-2,075.61-2,223.34-2,381.60-2,551.11-2,732.69
Free Cash Flow 869.201,040889.501,348.80553.901,104.871,183.511,267.751,357.991,454.65
WACC
PV LFCF 1,022.461,013.551,004.71995.95987.26
SUM PV LFCF 5,023.93

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,483.74
Terminal Value 24,484.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,617.29

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 21,641.22
Net Debt 7,003.50
Equity Value 14,637.72
Shares Outstanding 347.40
Equity Value Per Share 42.14