Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Phillips 66 (PSX)
$96.37
-2.44 (-2.47%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 102,354 | 111,461 | 107,293 | 64,129 | 111,476 | 122,277.74 | 134,126.14 | 147,122.62 | 161,378.42 | 177,015.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,648 | 7,573 | 4,808 | 2,111 | 6,017 | 5,754.14 | 6,311.70 | 6,923.29 | 7,594.14 | 8,329.99 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -1,832 | -2,639 | -3,873 | -2,920 | -1,860 | -3,421.11 | -3,752.61 | -4,116.22 | -4,515.08 | -4,952.58 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1,816 | 4,934 | 935 | -809 | 4,157 | 2,333.03 | 2,559.09 | 2,807.06 | 3,079.06 | 3,377.41 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 96.37 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.426 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 440.36 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 24.43 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.17% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.350 |
| Total Debt | 14,448 |
| Total Equity | 42,437.88 |
| Total Capital | 56,885.88 |
| Debt Weighting | 25.40 |
| Equity Weighting | 74.60 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 102,354 | 111,461 | 107,293 | 64,129 | 111,476 | 122,277.74 | 134,126.14 | 147,122.62 | 161,378.42 | 177,015.58 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,648 | 7,573 | 4,808 | 2,111 | 6,017 | 5,754.14 | 6,311.70 | 6,923.29 | 7,594.14 | 8,329.99 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,832 | -2,639 | -3,873 | -2,920 | -1,860 | -3,421.11 | -3,752.61 | -4,116.22 | -4,515.08 | -4,952.58 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,816 | 4,934 | 935 | -809 | 4,157 | 2,333.03 | 2,559.09 | 2,807.06 | 3,079.06 | 3,377.41 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 1,427.65 | 1,442.90 | 1,458.32 | 1,473.91 | 1,489.66 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 10,980.49 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.53 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 3,444.96 |
| Terminal Value | 52,755.92 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 35,036.62 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 46,017.11 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 11,301 |
| Equity Value | 34,716.11 |
| Shares Outstanding | 440.36 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 78.84 |