Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)
$276.53
+7.75 (+2.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,294 | 9,379 | 9,671 | 7,024 | 17,870 | 27,131.98 | 41,194.43 | 62,545.41 | 94,962.56 | 144,181.44 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,090 | 3,242 | 3,115 | 2,083 | 6,059 | 9,214.91 | 13,990.98 | 21,242.47 | 32,252.40 | 48,968.74 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,365 | -3,520 | -2,988 | -1,602 | -3,169 | -8,337.20 | -12,658.35 | -19,219.14 | -29,180.38 | -44,304.51 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -275 | -278 | 127 | 481 | 2,890 | 877.71 | 1,332.63 | 2,023.33 | 3,072.02 | 4,664.24 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 276.53 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.609 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 242.88 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 22.87 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 1.60% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.578 |
| Total Debt | 7,296 |
| Total Equity | 67,164.71 |
| Total Capital | 74,460.71 |
| Debt Weighting | 9.80 |
| Equity Weighting | 90.20 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
| Revenue | 5,294 | 9,379 | 9,671 | 7,024 | 17,870 | 27,131.98 | 41,194.43 | 62,545.41 | 94,962.56 | 144,181.44 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 2,090 | 3,242 | 3,115 | 2,083 | 6,059 | 9,214.91 | 13,990.98 | 21,242.47 | 32,252.40 | 48,968.74 |
| Capital Expenditure | -2,365 | -3,520 | -2,988 | -1,602 | -3,169 | -8,337.20 | -12,658.35 | -19,219.14 | -29,180.38 | -44,304.51 |
| Free Cash Flow | -275 | -278 | 127 | 481 | 2,890 | 877.71 | 1,332.63 | 2,023.33 | 3,072.02 | 4,664.24 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 800.10 | 1,107.38 | 1,532.66 | 2,121.28 | 2,935.94 | |||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 8,497.36 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.70 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 4,757.52 |
| Terminal Value | 61,785.99 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 38,891.69 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 47,389.06 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,449 |
| Equity Value | 43,940.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 242.88 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 180.91 |