Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)
$207.47
+0.66 (+0.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,379 | 9,671 | 7,024 | 17,870 | 25,622.98 | 36,739.61 | 52,679.25 | 75,534.38 | 108,305.29 | 155,294.01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,242 | 3,115 | 2,083 | 6,059 | 11,348 | 12,831.39 | 18,398.35 | 26,380.55 | 37,825.86 | 54,236.78 |
| Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -3,520 | -2,988 | -1,602 | -3,169 | -4,033 | -9,163.45 | -13,139.06 | -18,839.49 | -27,013.09 | -38,732.83 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -278 | 127 | 481 | 2,890 | 7,315 | 3,667.94 | 5,259.29 | 7,541.06 | 10,812.78 | 15,503.94 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 207.47 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.450 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 252 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 21.16 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.94% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.584 |
| Total Debt | 4,904 |
| Total Equity | 52,282.44 |
| Total Capital | 57,186.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 8.58 |
| Equity Weighting | 91.42 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
| Revenue | 9,379 | 9,671 | 7,024 | 17,870 | 25,622.98 | 36,739.61 | 52,679.25 | 75,534.38 | 108,305.29 | 155,294.01 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 3,242 | 3,115 | 2,083 | 6,059 | 11,348 | 12,831.39 | 18,398.35 | 26,380.55 | 37,825.86 | 54,236.78 |
| Capital Expenditure | -3,520 | -2,988 | -1,602 | -3,169 | -4,033 | -9,163.45 | -13,139.06 | -18,839.49 | -27,013.09 | -38,732.83 |
| Free Cash Flow | -278 | 127 | 481 | 2,890 | 7,315 | 3,667.94 | 5,259.29 | 7,541.06 | 10,812.78 | 15,503.94 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV LFCF | 7,315 | 3,334.19 | 4,345.73 | 5,664.16 | 7,382.59 | 9,622.36 | ||||
| SUM PV LFCF | 30,349.02 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.01 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 15,814.02 |
| Terminal Value | 197,428.51 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 122,531.86 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 152,880.89 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 3,872 |
| Equity Value | 149,008.89 |
| Shares Outstanding | 252 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 591.31 |