Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)

$207.47

+0.66 (+0.32%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 591.31 | 207.47 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,3799,6717,02417,87025,622.9836,739.6152,679.2575,534.38108,305.29155,294.01
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 3,2423,1152,0836,05911,34812,831.3918,398.3526,380.5537,825.8654,236.78
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -3,520-2,988-1,602-3,169-4,033-9,163.45-13,139.06-18,839.49-27,013.09-38,732.83
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -2781274812,8907,3153,667.945,259.297,541.0610,812.7815,503.94

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 207.47
Beta 1.450
Diluted Shares Outstanding 252
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.16
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.94%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.584
Total Debt 4,904
Total Equity 52,282.44
Total Capital 57,186.44
Debt Weighting 8.58
Equity Weighting 91.42
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 9,3799,6717,02417,87025,622.9836,739.6152,679.2575,534.38108,305.29155,294.01
Operating Cash Flow 3,2423,1152,0836,05911,34812,831.3918,398.3526,380.5537,825.8654,236.78
Capital Expenditure -3,520-2,988-1,602-3,169-4,033-9,163.45-13,139.06-18,839.49-27,013.09-38,732.83
Free Cash Flow -2781274812,8907,3153,667.945,259.297,541.0610,812.7815,503.94
WACC
PV LFCF 7,3153,334.194,345.735,664.167,382.599,622.36
SUM PV LFCF 30,349.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) 15,814.02
Terminal Value 197,428.51
Present Value of Terminal Value 122,531.86

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 152,880.89
Net Debt 3,872
Equity Value 149,008.89
Shares Outstanding 252
Equity Value Per Share 591.31