Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD)

$276.53

+7.75 (+2.88%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 180.91 | 276.53 | overvalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,2949,3799,6717,02417,87027,131.9841,194.4362,545.4194,962.56144,181.44
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 2,0903,2423,1152,0836,0599,214.9113,990.9821,242.4732,252.4048,968.74
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,365-3,520-2,988-1,602-3,169-8,337.20-12,658.35-19,219.14-29,180.38-44,304.51
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow -275-2781274812,890877.711,332.632,023.333,072.024,664.24

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 276.53
Beta 1.609
Diluted Shares Outstanding 242.88
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.87
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.60%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.578
Total Debt 7,296
Total Equity 67,164.71
Total Capital 74,460.71
Debt Weighting 9.80
Equity Weighting 90.20
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
Revenue 5,2949,3799,6717,02417,87027,131.9841,194.4362,545.4194,962.56144,181.44
Operating Cash Flow 2,0903,2423,1152,0836,0599,214.9113,990.9821,242.4732,252.4048,968.74
Capital Expenditure -2,365-3,520-2,988-1,602-3,169-8,337.20-12,658.35-19,219.14-29,180.38-44,304.51
Free Cash Flow -275-2781274812,890877.711,332.632,023.333,072.024,664.24
WACC
PV LFCF 800.101,107.381,532.662,121.282,935.94
SUM PV LFCF 8,497.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,757.52
Terminal Value 61,785.99
Present Value of Terminal Value 38,891.69

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 47,389.06
Net Debt 3,449
Equity Value 43,940.06
Shares Outstanding 242.88
Equity Value Per Share 180.91