Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Qudian Inc. (QD)

$1.28

+0.02 (+1.59%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 9.78 | 1.28 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	764.06	1,230.77	1,414.41	590.08	264.65	239.88	217.44	197.09	178.65	161.94
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	492.18	533.17	880.54	395.47	147.53	140.46	127.31	115.40	104.60	94.82
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1.81	-22.46	-12.22	-35.49	-76.55	-18.17	-16.47	-14.93	-13.53	-12.26
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	490.37	510.71	868.32	359.99	70.98	122.29	110.85	100.48	91.07	82.55

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.28
Beta	0.528
Diluted Shares Outstanding	266.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	30.40
After-tax Cost of Debt	3.48%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	6.117
Total Debt	164.81
Total Equity	340.85
Total Capital	505.66
Debt Weighting	32.59
Equity Weighting	67.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Projected	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected
Revenue	764.06	1,230.77	1,414.41	590.08	264.65	239.88	217.44	197.09	178.65	161.94
Operating Cash Flow	492.18	533.17	880.54	395.47	147.53	140.46	127.31	115.40	104.60	94.82
Capital Expenditure	-1.81	-22.46	-12.22	-35.49	-76.55	-18.17	-16.47	-14.93	-13.53	-12.26
Free Cash Flow	490.37	510.71	868.32	359.99	70.98	122.29	110.85	100.48	91.07	82.55
WACC
PV LFCF						116.18	100.05	86.15	74.19	63.89
SUM PV LFCF										440.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	5.26
Free cash flow (t + 1)	84.20
Terminal Value	2,582.94
Present Value of Terminal Value	1,998.93

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	2,439.38
Net Debt	-165.67
Equity Value	2,605.06
Shares Outstanding	266.29
Equity Value Per Share	9.78