Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Qudian Inc. (QD)
$1.57
-0.02 (-1.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,230.77 | 1,414.41 | 590.08 | 264.65 | 264.65 | 177.74 | 119.38 | 80.18 | 53.85 | 36.17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 3,332.32 | 5,503.39 | 2,471.71 | 922.07 | 260.87 | 542.37 | 364.27 | 244.66 | 164.32 | 110.36 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -140.39 | -76.39 | -221.79 | -478.43 | -273.63 | -120.36 | -80.84 | -54.29 | -36.46 | -24.49 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 3,191.93 | 5,427 | 2,249.93 | 443.63 | -12.76 | 422.02 | 283.44 | 190.37 | 127.85 | 85.87 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 1.57 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.863 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 266.29 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 30.40 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 59.25% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 8.359 |
Total Debt | 24.33 |
Total Equity | 418.08 |
Total Capital | 442.41 |
Debt Weighting | 5.50 |
Equity Weighting | 94.50 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Actual | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected | 2027 Projected |
Revenue | 1,230.77 | 1,414.41 | 590.08 | 264.65 | 264.65 | 177.74 | 119.38 | 80.18 | 53.85 | 36.17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 3,332.32 | 5,503.39 | 2,471.71 | 922.07 | 260.87 | 542.37 | 364.27 | 244.66 | 164.32 | 110.36 |
Capital Expenditure | -140.39 | -76.39 | -221.79 | -478.43 | -273.63 | -120.36 | -80.84 | -54.29 | -36.46 | -24.49 |
Free Cash Flow | 3,191.93 | 5,427 | 2,249.93 | 443.63 | -12.76 | 422.02 | 283.44 | 190.37 | 127.85 | 85.87 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 379.65 | 229.38 | 138.59 | 83.74 | 50.59 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 881.96 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.16 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 87.59 |
Terminal Value | 956.21 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 563.39 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 1,445.35 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -536 |
Equity Value | 1,981.35 |
Shares Outstanding | 266.29 |
Equity Value Per Share | 7.44 |