Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Qudian Inc. (QD)

$1.57

-0.02 (-1.26%)

All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD

Stock DCF: 7.44 | 1.57 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,230.77	1,414.41	590.08	264.65	264.65	177.74	119.38	80.18	53.85	36.17
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow	3,332.32	5,503.39	2,471.71	922.07	260.87	542.37	364.27	244.66	164.32	110.36
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure	-140.39	-76.39	-221.79	-478.43	-273.63	-120.36	-80.84	-54.29	-36.46	-24.49
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow	3,191.93	5,427	2,249.93	443.63	-12.76	422.02	283.44	190.37	127.85	85.87

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 1.57
Beta	0.863
Diluted Shares Outstanding	266.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	30.40
After-tax Cost of Debt	59.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	8.359
Total Debt	24.33
Total Equity	418.08
Total Capital	442.41
Debt Weighting	5.50
Equity Weighting	94.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year A/P	2018 Actual	2019 Actual	2020 Actual	2021 Actual	2022 Actual	2023 Projected	2024 Projected	2025 Projected	2026 Projected	2027 Projected
Revenue	1,230.77	1,414.41	590.08	264.65	264.65	177.74	119.38	80.18	53.85	36.17
Operating Cash Flow	3,332.32	5,503.39	2,471.71	922.07	260.87	542.37	364.27	244.66	164.32	110.36
Capital Expenditure	-140.39	-76.39	-221.79	-478.43	-273.63	-120.36	-80.84	-54.29	-36.46	-24.49
Free Cash Flow	3,191.93	5,427	2,249.93	443.63	-12.76	422.02	283.44	190.37	127.85	85.87
WACC
PV LFCF						379.65	229.38	138.59	83.74	50.59
SUM PV LFCF										881.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	11.16
Free cash flow (t + 1)	87.59
Terminal Value	956.21
Present Value of Terminal Value	563.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	1,445.35
Net Debt	-536
Equity Value	1,981.35
Shares Outstanding	266.29
Equity Value Per Share	7.44