Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered
Qudian Inc. (QD)
$1.28
+0.02 (+1.59%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 764.06 | 1,230.77 | 1,414.41 | 590.08 | 264.65 | 239.88 | 217.44 | 197.09 | 178.65 | 161.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
Operating Cash Flow | 492.18 | 533.17 | 880.54 | 395.47 | 147.53 | 140.46 | 127.31 | 115.40 | 104.60 | 94.82 |
Operating Cash Flow (%) | ||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1.81 | -22.46 | -12.22 | -35.49 | -76.55 | -18.17 | -16.47 | -14.93 | -13.53 | -12.26 |
Capital Expenditure (%) | ||||||||||
Free Cash Flow | 490.37 | 510.71 | 868.32 | 359.99 | 70.98 | 122.29 | 110.85 | 100.48 | 91.07 | 82.55 |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 1.28 |
---|---|
Beta | 0.528 |
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 266.29 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 30.40 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.48% |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 6.117 |
Total Debt | 164.81 |
Total Equity | 340.85 |
Total Capital | 505.66 |
Debt Weighting | 32.59 |
Equity Weighting | 67.41 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash Flow
Year A/P | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Actual | 2021 Actual | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected | 2025 Projected | 2026 Projected |
Revenue | 764.06 | 1,230.77 | 1,414.41 | 590.08 | 264.65 | 239.88 | 217.44 | 197.09 | 178.65 | 161.94 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Operating Cash Flow | 492.18 | 533.17 | 880.54 | 395.47 | 147.53 | 140.46 | 127.31 | 115.40 | 104.60 | 94.82 |
Capital Expenditure | -1.81 | -22.46 | -12.22 | -35.49 | -76.55 | -18.17 | -16.47 | -14.93 | -13.53 | -12.26 |
Free Cash Flow | 490.37 | 510.71 | 868.32 | 359.99 | 70.98 | 122.29 | 110.85 | 100.48 | 91.07 | 82.55 |
WACC | ||||||||||
PV LFCF | 116.18 | 100.05 | 86.15 | 74.19 | 63.89 | |||||
SUM PV LFCF | 440.46 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 5.26 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 84.20 |
Terminal Value | 2,582.94 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 1,998.93 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 2,439.38 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -165.67 |
Equity Value | 2,605.06 |
Shares Outstanding | 266.29 |
Equity Value Per Share | 9.78 |