Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Levered

Qudian Inc. (QD)

$1.57

-0.02 (-1.26%)
All numbers are in Millions, Currency in USD
Stock DCF: 7.44 | 1.57 | undervalue

Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,230.771,414.41590.08264.65264.65177.74119.3880.1853.8536.17
Revenue (%)
Operating Cash Flow 3,332.325,503.392,471.71922.07260.87542.37364.27244.66164.32110.36
Operating Cash Flow (%)
Capital Expenditure -140.39-76.39-221.79-478.43-273.63-120.36-80.84-54.29-36.46-24.49
Capital Expenditure (%)
Free Cash Flow 3,191.935,4272,249.93443.63-12.76422.02283.44190.37127.8585.87

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1.57
Beta 0.863
Diluted Shares Outstanding 266.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 30.40
After-tax Cost of Debt 59.25%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.359
Total Debt 24.33
Total Equity 418.08
Total Capital 442.41
Debt Weighting 5.50
Equity Weighting 94.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash Flow

Year
A/P
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Actual
2022
Actual
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
2026
Projected
2027
Projected
Revenue 1,230.771,414.41590.08264.65264.65177.74119.3880.1853.8536.17
Operating Cash Flow 3,332.325,503.392,471.71922.07260.87542.37364.27244.66164.32110.36
Capital Expenditure -140.39-76.39-221.79-478.43-273.63-120.36-80.84-54.29-36.46-24.49
Free Cash Flow 3,191.935,4272,249.93443.63-12.76422.02283.44190.37127.8585.87
WACC
PV LFCF 379.65229.38138.5983.7450.59
SUM PV LFCF 881.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.16
Free cash flow (t + 1) 87.59
Terminal Value 956.21
Present Value of Terminal Value 563.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,445.35
Net Debt -536
Equity Value 1,981.35
Shares Outstanding 266.29
Equity Value Per Share 7.44